tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31844258667718713892024-03-12T12:50:39.501+08:00無情真實的未來預測無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.comBlogger496125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-26236181594812342972024-02-26T16:40:00.003+08:002024-02-26T16:41:00.024+08:002024 當前臺灣政治立場傾向追蹤:黨派的意識形態 穩固而歷久不衰<h2 style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">黨派:名詞,是很多人為少數人的利益而表現出來的瘋狂。</span><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;">--</span></span><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">(The Devil's Dictionary)</span></h2><div><span style="font-size: xx-small;"> <br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5XkdlwrVrGS6ZWnqXjGpeOBYTnY5t3Id87zeiH4TqSEfZ_ZeNh1tYSbib1vKiYQMgIuf-TEo2P6EZLYgzg4l9Z5Tx7M_XTPclo-s3DUXH43LXDIYGdqBI76PY-QqC_-EWpq3uAkkbe18BwlByINpVXBUSA13IHZfL822hxmiawHxSY7WVYZWmvSTKPGMa/s16000/05-Party-2.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div><div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【臺灣政治立場傾向推估】</span></h2><div><span><div style="font-size: large;"><img alt="臺灣政治立場傾向推估" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fparty%2F00-Party-new.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="臺灣政治立場傾向推估" /></div><div>註:政治立場傾向民調來源:TVBS、政大選研、台灣民意基金會(山水)與美麗島民調</div></span><span style="font-size: medium;"><div><br /></div></span></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【臺灣政治立場傾向趨勢圖】</span></h2><h2><img alt="臺灣政治立場傾向趨勢圖" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fparty%2F05-Party-1.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="臺灣政治立場傾向趨勢圖" /></h2></div><div><br /></div><div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【當前各直轄市及縣市 選民結構分布推估 】</span></h2><div><span><span><div><img alt="各直轄市及縣市 選民結構分布推估" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fparty%2F07-City-County.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="各直轄市及縣市 選民結構分布推估" /></div><div>註:縣市得票分布推估以<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2016/04/taiwan-election-geography.html" target="_blank">臺灣選舉地理:各直轄市及縣市的選民結構模型</a>推估(已更新2024得票資料 )</div></span></span></div><div><br /></div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【當前區域立委選區支持率推估】</span></h2><h2><img alt="當前區域立委選區支持率推估-1" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fparty%2F08-Legislators-1.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="當前區域立委選區支持率推估-1" /></h2><div><br /></div><img alt="當前區域立委選區支持率推估-2" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fparty%2F08-Legislators-2.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="當前區域立委選區支持率推估-2" /></div><div><br /><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2024與2020 政黨得票率統計】</span></h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img alt="2024政黨得票率統計" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_JqOi_VQL_YwTaaw7QCQiWpvlQBlIYKKqj4HwQXxLsTcMepnYbFun7xfloazyynrHwiT7r0t8NYxmXFaTgpwHK2pe6ihCdaxk1xXcnrHpCgd-JArp6fmdCfasNDtktzuf8RR95z9bChjvudZXN_YalHcQEwjr5LSprZnxGZXNvPNyjpwgyYHU3j1OQEAr/s16000/party-2024.png" title="2024政黨得票率統計" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img alt="2020 全國不分區選舉 政黨得票率 統計" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiheLN5HkvK8N4ZTDZNY7TkcPJVdNHQ1Rye7fLm6RLckLuwO7RVgI-9hNqGdNEntRzAbAwY4FSluYpdRng-TJ3Xs15XT1xLKiA1CMHGPSsMLT2e4GyM8vqKUzn1ac6sU_u43uqo_Y2U0MjRHYgOE5OIRHaZf8BecByl2BPMQFeNc98-MflQhCqielIFUrZp/s16000/party-2020.png" title="2020 全國不分區選舉 政黨得票率 統計" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div>-------</div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【TVBS民調】 </span>『政黨傾向』交叉表彙整</h2><div><img alt="TVBS民調" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fparty%2F01-TVBS.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="TVBS民調" /></div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【美麗島民調】 </span>台灣民眾政黨傾向的追蹤分析</h2><div><img alt="美麗島民調" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fparty%2F02-formosa.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="美麗島民調" /></div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【山水民調】</span>台灣民意基金-台灣人的政黨支持傾向</h2></div><img alt="台灣民意基金-台灣人的政黨支持傾向" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fparty%2F04-fsr.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="台灣民意基金-台灣人的政黨支持傾向" /></div><div><div><br /></div><div>------------------</div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;"><span>【</span>歷史回顧<span>】</span></span>按圖連結詳細資料</h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2022/12/2022-2024-taiwan-voters-structure.html">2023 臺灣選民結構追蹤與各縣市選民分布推估</a></h2><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2022/12/2022-2024-taiwan-voters-structure.html"><img alt="2024總統大選: 臺灣選民結構追蹤與各縣市選民分布推估" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FParty%2F2024%2F05-Party-2.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024總統大選: 臺灣選民結構追蹤與各縣市選民分布推估" /></a></div><div>註:上圖2023資料以民調原始數據製作趨勢圖,當前最新2024資料含2023之資料經標準化計算。</div>無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-82156990300670081012024-02-26T16:40:00.002+08:002024-02-26T16:40:52.641+08:002024 台灣選舉地理縣市選民結構篇:藍綠對決 VS 藍綠白三腳督<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQc7LnVKlnsbJDiLg-5oMH61jVxLe0cKur34tSNkIC3tc7cdAkyOwgLjUG_1o6c6ezyE7Qcy6pmWF8O-m1D3KmJKbV4ReotxdObr10ZyAhIrBF0XMt17OuQ2b8nTtigPCl20c3HMtrp3EHHE-ETA2VFOsVa57n5mHZ1TriUpmjXjT5ywy2ZgCbvxCbmTo6/s16000/07-City-County-3.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【藍綠對決】</span><span>當前選民結構分布推估</span></h2><div><span><div style="font-size: large;"><img alt="藍綠對決-當前選民結構分布推估" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fparty%2F07-City-County-1.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="藍綠對決-當前選民結構分布推估" /></div><div><br /></div></span></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【藍綠白三腳督】</span><span>當前選民結構分布推估</span></h2><h2><img alt="藍綠白三腳督-當前選民結構分布推估" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fparty%2F07-City-County-2.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="藍綠白三腳督-當前選民結構分布推估" /></h2></div><div><div><br /></div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2024 政黨得票率統計】</span></h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img alt="2024 政黨得票率統計" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_JqOi_VQL_YwTaaw7QCQiWpvlQBlIYKKqj4HwQXxLsTcMepnYbFun7xfloazyynrHwiT7r0t8NYxmXFaTgpwHK2pe6ihCdaxk1xXcnrHpCgd-JArp6fmdCfasNDtktzuf8RR95z9bChjvudZXN_YalHcQEwjr5LSprZnxGZXNvPNyjpwgyYHU3j1OQEAr/s16000/party-2024.png" title="2024 政黨得票率統計" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;"><span>【相關資料</span><span>】</span></span><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2024/01/taiwan-voters-structure.html">2024 當前臺灣政治立場傾向追蹤</a></h2><h2><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2024/01/taiwan-voters-structure.html"><img alt="2024 當前臺灣政治立場傾向追蹤" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fparty%2F00-Party-new.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024 當前臺灣政治立場傾向追蹤" /></a></h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">-------</div></div></div><div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;"><span>【</span>歷史回顧<span>】</span></span>按圖連結詳細資料</h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/search/label/2022%E5%A4%A7%E9%81%B8">2022 縣市長當選人預測</a></h2></div><div><h2><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/search/label/2022%E5%A4%A7%E9%81%B8"><img alt="2022 縣市長當選人預測" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZsowzVxpkH8-KZ3BlxWPPXHAat2nSFlHeLcxevqZzFa5y11J822Xb2ZKVRgLDMIYOVgkCWVp5zK7s3RB3o_CjrPQZzkJ8qQRox-ucMcwVU1gsAGkLKtmCjLb5goYt921x5AphxmZSNHZSn-EADa6dbfS6-HzCqbXr91BlgO6ZqJTFlUhHlbsQetnKpQ/s16000/2022-taiwan-election.png" title="2022 縣市長當選人預測" /></a></h2></div>無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-53798319733102067582024-02-26T16:40:00.000+08:002024-02-26T16:40:32.780+08:002024 台灣選舉地理立委選區選民結構篇:單一選區 第三勢力難以生存<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDUguCajjAabBP4TTA7dWCO6vFoTYWYxyIoJX6tz35MeiNDNN4SamOhcKkEbBxO8QjPCxzL3jmtYqy46uS0M_NN-7asnXFOpEAX-qAxYYJMD2IUCDcj0EEEXSg62A9ZKO_3uql8yc3iyFmPtW07sf2FTn9HZ-5ZqZqWl2fVKLnRj4noJhMTOatoA4-ON4n/s16000/Byelection-2024.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【區域立委-藍綠對決】</span></h2><div><span><div style="font-size: large;"><img alt="藍綠對決-當前區域立委選民結構分布推估-2" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fparty%2F08-Legislators-1.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="藍綠對決-當前區域立委選民結構分布推估-2" /></div><div style="font-size: large;"><br /></div></span><img alt="藍綠對決-當前區域立委選民結構分布推估-2" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fparty%2F08-Legislators-2.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="藍綠對決-當前區域立委選民結構分布推估-2" /><span><div><br /></div></span></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;"><span>【</span>區域立委選區-藍綠白<span>】</span></span></h2><h2><img alt="藍綠白三腳督-北北基立委選區選民結構分布推估-1" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fparty%2F09-Legislators-3-1.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="藍綠白三腳督-北北基立委選區選民結構分布推估-1" /></h2></div><div><img alt="藍綠白三腳督-桃竹苗立委選區選民結構分布推估" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fparty%2F09-Legislators-3-2.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="藍綠白三腳督-桃竹苗立委選區選民結構分布推估" /></div><div><br /></div><div><img alt="藍綠白三腳督-雲嘉南與高屏花東外島立委選區選民結構分布推估" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fparty%2F09-Legislators-3-3.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="藍綠白三腳督-雲嘉南與高屏花東外島立委選區選民結構分布推估" /></div><div><br /></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;"><span>【相關資料</span><span>】</span></span><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2024/01/taiwan-voters-structure.html">2024 當前臺灣政治立場傾向追蹤</a></h2><h2><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2024/01/taiwan-voters-structure.html"><img alt="2024 當前臺灣政治立場傾向追蹤" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fparty%2F00-Party-new.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024 當前臺灣政治立場傾向追蹤" /></a></h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">-------</div></div></div><div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;"><span>【</span>歷史回顧<span>】</span></span>按圖連結詳細資料</h2><h2><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2023/03/regional-legislator.html">2024 區域立委當選人預測</a></h2><h2><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2023/03/regional-legislator.html"><img alt="2024 區域立委當選人預測-1" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFgKgA_5MaXM71vRCbcKvnEuQMdhIsTfiJER1nOw8onED1Cy3Zumymx-2bT-M4aVEMshl9xtAlYcQOv-V_tH65I1Lt4ZUuyCnOY9Lsihwj99i4aJtQJmiftY9_e_EVsItspe12nvqA6c_6V9AT0owWwkGKNIWTDkOLwumoSxw0sDtNvDu1_mXq35PLzCqU/s16000/regional-legislator-1.png" title="2024 區域立委當選人預測-1" /></a></h2><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2023/03/regional-legislator.html"><img alt="2024 區域立委當選人預測-2" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Flegislator%2Fregional-legislator-2.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024 區域立委當選人預測-2" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2023/03/regional-legislator.html"><img alt="2024 區域立委當選人預測-3" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Flegislator%2Fregional-legislator-3.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024 區域立委當選人預測-3" /></a></div>無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-39487433311809360242024-02-26T08:43:00.000+08:002024-02-26T17:39:16.393+08:00 2024 印尼總統選舉預測:Prabowo 當選機率 >99%<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><h2 style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;"><span>全球最大的單日選舉 地表最複雜的投票 </span></span></h2><span style="font-size: medium;">2024年印尼總統選舉於2024年2月14日舉行,是印尼第五屆總統選舉,與立法機構選舉、地方議會選舉同步舉行。本次選舉以全民直選的形式進行,以簡單多數制決定勝負,合資格選民超過2億人。當選者將於同年宣誓就職,任期至2029年屆滿。<br />如果在第一輪中沒有一對候選人獲得超過50%的選票,並且至少20%的選票分佈在印尼一半以上的省份,則總統和副總統的大選將分兩輪進行。但截至2023年,總統和副總統兩輪大選只在2004年印尼總統大選中進行過。<br />投票資格為年滿17歲,以及未滿17歲但已婚的印尼公民均擁有投票權。根據選委會在2023年7月2日公布的選民登記冊,合資格的選民人數為204,807,222人,其中國內選民203,056,748人,國外選民1,750,474人。</span></div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2024 印尼總統選舉預測】 </span></h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPpLyUlcEZ8PXISyQz62H0nw0O194K5bPqQyXc11Z7HQTqsL9jNr6k0QJpwz4UbQCLTOCTtnbX7SX-yD2Fyc3j7JN12cCePXRP4O349dsO1SAupcSq9koHN8FZk2fZhM1HAwJFu3tRqPWYVQEM9vrKtJJQdrwwUHt9FAQOXz4E6z-Zqw2cMfWabUj5mfD4/s16000/01-prediction.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【預測變動紀錄表】</span></h2><h2><img alt="印尼總統選舉預測變動紀錄表" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FIndonesian%2F02-change.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="印尼總統選舉預測變動紀錄表" /></h2><div><br /></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【民意調查】</span></h2></div><img alt="2024 印尼總統選舉 民意調查" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FIndonesian%2F04-polls.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024 印尼總統選舉 民意調查" /><div><br /></div><div><div style="text-align: left;">----------------</div></div><div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【歷史回顧】</span>2019年印尼總統選舉結果</h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img alt="2019年印尼總統選舉結果" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2T_L5xrDOAk0xtm6PCeibgOUwEyLGsnNdmoFu94t84OSsOUQ49nzeU5Rw18BU1imYP_UsW93gRq8Mr_NBRshPlrMGQND5OuMEYo9snWB-eghq9rc2OLjJPj0-KJk1US-_zK57Afc409b7uvJCvhBRagWvdHSEyqI6Hddfe_l9543TRFCQVowzNuGrbIuQ/s16000/2018%E8%8A%AC%E8%98%AD%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C.png" title="2019年印尼總統選舉結果" /></div>
</div>無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-4711129473993950092024-02-13T07:48:00.001+08:002024-02-13T08:58:40.706+08:002024 芬蘭總統大選預測:第2輪決選 史塔布將成為芬蘭總統<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><h2 style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;"><span>芬蘭總統大選1/28登場 </span>第二輪投票2/11舉行</span></h2><h3 style="clear: both; text-align: left;">芬蘭總統任期六年,現任總統尼尼斯托(Sauli Niinisto)已擔任2個任期共12年,任滿後不得再選。<br />芬蘭去年2023年4月正式成為北約第31個會員國,總統是芬蘭軍隊最高指揮官,在北約(NATO)代表芬蘭列席,並且主導外交政策,與內閣合作施政。<br />若28日大選投票沒有候選人過半,將於下月11日舉行第2輪投票。</h3></div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2024 芬蘭總統選舉預測】 </span></h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img alt="2024 芬蘭總統大選預測:第2輪決選 史塔布將成為芬蘭總統" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyvPvq5SlEgPdVUo0h_kXczYTt-K7aTmUiEXL-thVJux8Bw1kQBSp27cL9iSWHlPQhamJ-cQR0AGfcmEWMs5GmDr-LyB0TLMD1i5nSjRwc0s4_BgKCs_jFvlVV09rL3re6Z6owvS0qEjLDv4nFTF7OfB69obGQ0_bsKWAAo7q6ElI-nk6WngFuAIJKiyF2/s16000/01-prediction.png" title="2024 芬蘭總統大選預測:第2輪決選 史塔布將成為芬蘭總統" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【預測變動紀錄表】</span></h2><h2><img alt="預測變動紀錄表" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FFinland%2F02-change.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="預測變動紀錄表" /></h2><div><br /></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【民意調查】</span></h2></div><img alt="2024 芬蘭總統選舉 民意調查" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FFinland%2F04-polls.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024 芬蘭總統選舉 民意調查" /><div><br /></div><div><div style="text-align: left;">----------------</div></div><div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【歷史回顧】</span>2018年芬蘭總統選舉結果</h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img alt="2018年芬蘭總統選舉結果" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfS1OXyXBEavKwAHFLL6TjjVYDhGd1c3qT5f17zNtWGrflgZiHVYjjCaTTElehyphenhyphenjkoDWEjNgUxNXiWqtoqZFRDdXAFW3crP17tTjIlRpVRc-6MhwBZeaTGDyujM269liNO6ohQJZp4Ai6mExHSR2TKnwTQdj5azu6T-7aGUHvYSHVzdUKVs12ff0YXzhLB/s16000/2018%E8%8A%AC%E8%98%AD%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C.png" title="2018年芬蘭總統選舉結果" /></div>
</div>無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-35507915991472097062024-01-26T16:02:00.000+08:002024-02-02T15:50:39.548+08:002024 美國共和黨總統初選預測:迎來垃圾時間 初選實際上已經結束<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj21dw9VjEXLgnOjTBL8WvA07tuqF_izvnoz3rGp8F7P88Mes-_NLWSh6MzxQzT5Xyb5duJvPIXDQSyf1HYYk-HRZ-kfdrSuRLVz7hynzOvK1ibjKVR23PHEI8FUi-yA8MbJy4lFmmXhwAYae0tglUrwgNQ_titOx2yX7Jlhf2XlAkS93KvkD19Doky1a5q/s16000/01-prediction.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;">2024 新罕布夏州共和黨總統初選簡介:</h2><h3 style="text-align: left;">初選日期:2024年1月23日<br />初選方式:直接初選<br />代表人數:22人,<br />分配方式:得票至少 10%<br />重要性:新罕布夏州初選是繼愛荷華州黨團會議之後舉行的第二場初選,因此是問鼎白宮的競爭者在總統競選的前期所要經歷的關鍵性考驗。<br />2016 年川普以 35.2% 贏得新州初選,最接近的對手是John Kasich ,得票率15.7%位居第二。</h3><div><br /></div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2024 新罕布夏州 初選預測】 </span></h2><h2><img alt="2024 新罕布夏州 初選預測" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FUS%2F2024-republican-primary%2FNew-Hampshire%2F01-prediction-polls.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024 新罕布夏州 初選預測" /></h2><div><br /></div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【預測變動紀錄表】</span></h2><h2><img alt="預測變動紀錄表" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FUS%2F2024-republican-primary%2FNew-Hampshire%2F02-change.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="預測變動紀錄表" /></h2><div><br /></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【新罕布夏州 初選民調】</span></h2></div><img alt="新罕布夏州 初選民調" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FUS%2F2024-republican-primary%2FNew-Hampshire%2F04-polls.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="新罕布夏州 初選民調" /><div><br /></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【共和黨潛在候選人全國民調】</span></h2></div><img alt="共和黨潛在候選人全國民調" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FUS%2F2024-1%2F04-polls.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="共和黨潛在候選人全國民調" /><div><br /><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【上一個初選州】</span><span style="color: #444444;"><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2024/01/2024-Iowa-Republican-presidential.html"><span>共和黨</span>愛荷華州總統初選預測</a></span></h2><div><h2><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2024/01/2024-Iowa-Republican-presidential.html"><img border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FUS%2F2024-republican-primary%2FIowa%2F01-prediction.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" /></a></h2></div><div><br /></div><div>----------------</div><div><br /></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【歷史回顧】</span><span style="color: #0b5394;"><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2019/02/2020-us-presidential-election.html">2020 民主黨總統初選預測</a></span></h2></div><h3 class="post-title entry-title" style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: #0b5394; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 24px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; max-width: calc(100% - 48px);">社會主義入侵 溫和派退選大團結</h3><div><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2019/02/2020-us-presidential-election.html"><img alt="2020 民主黨總統初選預測" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/proxy/AVvXsEh8ZVjBCffE4v9U-F4y-YEonXYNjqXXRUhj5T6c30jgFfjR5hAtzVu1Zy4DxV_pjx8DAAxPYeHM_qUOR-Pr6sZgrBwdmhRVJMUqDKCZXpinJ9huysZG46BoP4cJ9Ea5leXN08j-toiMEGctB7m8AJ6QpAZW2WtaOTezh1R49r9-mUap=s16000" title="2020 民主黨總統初選預測" /></a></div>
</div>無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-73464735308387182432024-01-18T17:30:00.000+08:002024-01-18T17:30:28.516+08:002024 美國總統看好度追蹤: 不要賭太大 有了川普 一切皆有可能<h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">民調與歷史有利位置都站在川普這一邊</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;">不要對預測太過自信,更不要賭太大。有了川普,一切皆有可能。<span style="font-size: small;">(2021/8/29)</span></h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0JLuJqaI8eoRK9kb4j-uT9wueouQoZNeIh2_oktL_3FurgI9no9B6_o-kjzFaZSR8Ybnrk6W6X8fum2dZKzfToxONpB7Xwge-pf5RORznc_qbB9EB5ULdN8x_vyLfiPfVYqNINDUND3T-JdNGaskgbQ9hVK23BBniLDkfamHWpvRItqjQlWmRFLxeAzAv/s16000/01-candidate-3kd.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2024 美國總統 當選看好度】</span></h2><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">2024年第60屆美國總統大選,訂於 2024年11月5日星期二舉行。本次大選將依據2020年後人口普查重新分配選舉人票。<br />現任總統拜登表示,他打算競選連任,截至 2022年11月拜登尚未承諾競選連任。前總統川普多次暗示他打算參選後,於2022年11月15日向聯邦選舉委員會提交了參選聲明,並於當天在海湖莊園發表演講宣布參選,將尋求美國自1892年來第二位非連續任期的總統。美國大選是在黨團會議和主要政黨舉行的初選之後進行。2024 年總統選舉的獲勝者訂於2025年1月20日就職。</span></p><img alt="2024 美國總統當選看好度" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FUS%2F2024-1%2F01-candidate.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024 美國總統當選看好度" /><div><br /><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2024美國總統可能候選人變動表】</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><img alt="2024美國總統可能候選人變動表" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FUS%2F2024-1%2F02-change.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024美國總統可能候選人變動表" /></h2><div><h2 style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><br /></h2><h2><img border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FUS%2F2024-1%2F03-change-pic.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" /></h2></div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2024美國總統大選全國民調】</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><img alt="2024美國總統大選全國民調" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FUS%2F2024-1%2F03-National_poll.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024美國總統大選全國民調" /></h2><div><h2><br /></h2><h2><img alt="2024 年美國總統大選 全國民調--三咖督" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FUS%2F2024-1%2F03-National_poll_3kd.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024 年美國總統大選 全國民調--三咖督" /></h2></div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【相關預測】</span><span style="color: #444444;">2024 美國共和黨總統初選預測</span></h2><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2024/01/2024-Iowa-Republican-presidential.html"><img border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FUS%2F2024-republican-primary%2FIowa%2F01-prediction-polls.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" /></a><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>-------------------</div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【歷史回顧】</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;">1、<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2020/03/2020-united-states-presidential-election.html">2020 美國總統大選預測</a></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2020/03/2020-united-states-presidential-election.html"><img alt="2020 美國總統大選預測" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk1ONqY8xMdF_JMqD5jz_RYAZpUl0RX97zWNWPW8t_zPO_L0qKPZ_NZsT8NKiIsXT0p_MBn5YY_XQIrC2V9_8ZR_U7IAewJpqsjQawCWVY9T2VhtD-LD4jH0uRKC9Px8ndYsLequwzZV2f/s16000/01-result.png" title="2020 美國總統大選預測" /></a></h2><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;">2、<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2019/02/2020-us-presidential-election.html">2020 民主黨總統初選預測</a></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2019/02/2020-us-presidential-election.html"><img alt="2020 民主黨總統初選預測" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/proxy/AVvXsEh8ZVjBCffE4v9U-F4y-YEonXYNjqXXRUhj5T6c30jgFfjR5hAtzVu1Zy4DxV_pjx8DAAxPYeHM_qUOR-Pr6sZgrBwdmhRVJMUqDKCZXpinJ9huysZG46BoP4cJ9Ea5leXN08j-toiMEGctB7m8AJ6QpAZW2WtaOTezh1R49r9-mUap=s16000" title="2020 民主黨總統初選預測" /></a></h2></div>無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-6939268776890957962024-01-18T08:03:00.001+08:002024-01-18T08:03:12.953+08:002024 美國共和黨總統初選預測:川普將贏得 IOWA 過半的代表數<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCwEO7Dhulw4W2E4FP7nWUo-8nPCQTlR6jyL7rZVfijTViPOBhgVMKFrBcJbre14gqmerHzAS9Cz_UjPC5qXMUbs0J3FHx00GIvKq8kZ4YJdfXRJuU3Oao2r03JVKialQdOz7cOeGQRvxFKZrWmReoo_-XQGACgbIo5i1OSFFis97kLbsFl3BPK9RX762U/s16000/01-prediction.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><h2 style="clear: both; text-align: left;">2024 愛荷華州共和黨總統初選簡介:</h2><h3 style="clear: both;">初選日期:2024 年 1 月 15 日<br />初選方式:黨團會議<br />代表人數:40人,分配方式沒有門檻<br />重要性:從1972年開始,愛荷華州初選被視為兩黨總統候選人的風向指標。但從1976年到2016年,愛荷華州初選的8名獲勝者中只有3人最終獲得了共和黨總統提名。<br />在2016年愛荷華州共和黨黨團會議上,德州參議員克魯茲以 27.6% 比 24.3% 的優勢擊敗了最終提名人川普,這被認為是一場意外的勝利。</h3></div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2024 愛荷華州初選預測】 </span></h2><h2><img alt="2024 愛荷華州初選預測" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FUS%2F2024-republican-primary%2FIowa%2F01-prediction-polls.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024 愛荷華州初選預測" /></h2><div><br /></div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【預測變動紀錄表】</span></h2><h2><img alt="預測變動紀錄表" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FUS%2F2024-republican-primary%2FIowa%2F02-change.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="預測變動紀錄表" /></h2><div><br /></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【愛荷華州初選民調】</span></h2></div><img alt="愛荷華州初選民調" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FUS%2F2024-republican-primary%2FIowa%2F04-polls.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="愛荷華州初選民調" /><div><br /></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【共和黨潛在候選人全國民調】</span></h2></div><img alt="共和黨潛在候選人全國民調" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FUS%2F2024-1%2F04-polls.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="共和黨潛在候選人全國民調" /><div><br /><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【下一個初選州】</span><span style="color: #444444;">按圖連結詳細資料</span></h2><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2024/01/New-Hampshire-Republican-presidential-primary.html"><img alt="2024 新罕布夏州 初選預測" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FUS%2F2024-republican-primary%2FNew-Hampshire%2F01-prediction-polls.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024 新罕布夏州 初選預測" /></a><div><br /></div><div><br /><div>----------------</div><div><br /></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【歷史回顧】</span><span style="color: #0b5394;"><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2019/02/2020-us-presidential-election.html">2020 民主黨總統初選預測</a></span></h2></div><h3 class="post-title entry-title" style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: #0b5394; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 24px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; max-width: calc(100% - 48px);">社會主義入侵 溫和派退選大團結</h3><div><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2019/02/2020-us-presidential-election.html"><img alt="2020 民主黨總統初選預測" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/proxy/AVvXsEh8ZVjBCffE4v9U-F4y-YEonXYNjqXXRUhj5T6c30jgFfjR5hAtzVu1Zy4DxV_pjx8DAAxPYeHM_qUOR-Pr6sZgrBwdmhRVJMUqDKCZXpinJ9huysZG46BoP4cJ9Ea5leXN08j-toiMEGctB7m8AJ6QpAZW2WtaOTezh1R49r9-mUap=s16000" title="2020 民主黨總統初選預測" /></a></div></div></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><h2 style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【後記】</span></h2><h2 style="clear: both;">當結果出來時,請記住這一切,並為在寒冷中冒險的人倒上一杯熱騰騰的咖啡。</h2></div><div><h2 style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjezDAspqtDl_4XVR5CUFkrLNiWKMFmUmNJFyli21BZ0YPJ7_vp4_Zxfw_TpjnBj8joJrDP2gFnJBnyOGI2VoscquxiF-DlBIbO0qJBoFfS3BqQ2_xpte-3gtg8j3TR-ZVa6XnGmy-QU2kT-dCpaVHDXxT1XAaIihJ9d_sZbeWFeyxerT-zPx3VixMsV-DP/s16000/Iowa%20Caucus.png" /></h2></div>無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-65755066736655477562024-01-17T21:54:00.038+08:002024-01-20T16:37:33.679+08:002024 總統大選到底有沒有作票:<h2><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZW2vyfEjHD7YgLwBkvLPb84sRBg5C7lvFmN_GcWq_qOX3WmyIaZjYamp9Aad1qD_sS7cKTKj9toCCJv7xI8rfICPyp6XTlJZii0lbiIJlchta1boGTvXTUIUX4teY4i7AkKF9Jl9Lj8-sH6gMmK2JH2h0mKWVJymlf9Liy-KGYGMyZ3ENspWx__WqDMDs/s16000/%E6%84%9B%E8%8E%89%E8%8E%8E%E8%8E%8E%E3%80%8C%E8%B3%AA%E7%96%91%E4%BD%9C%E7%A5%A8%E3%80%8D.jpg" /></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;">先說結論:<br />1、2024總統大選作票的可能性趨近於0<br />2、2020總統大選817萬票作票的可能性也趨近於0</h2><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【平均民調與大選結果】</span>在誤差範圍之內</h2><h3 style="text-align: left;">下圖為所有民調『標準化平均移動』趨勢(2023/11/26~2024/1/1 民調)</h3><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2aGdd4FKiFi0FcDpKjxXmy1pEDrYVmFsQgsUwSDIzuuPEcVpwZF4K3JxCpp-ce8C-TYunC42X0mIbrsl0TU4K_OQMMW3sGJT24USvjuH3ZgJXTe57OxnN_WNsAL8kBmQ5KS6QELRwbBivVoKaynPu_pC-IC8Ty1WjWme_kS_yXFfoXhTtCUSyB_23ImZZ/s16000/%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF%E8%88%87%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2023/11/2024-Taiwanese-presidential-election.html" style="background: rgb(243, 243, 243); color: #0b5394; font-size: 15px; text-decoration-line: none;">詳細資料請連結:2024 總統大選預測</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><h2 style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【總統得票與政黨得票】</span>賴得票約等於泛綠支持度</h2><h3 style="text-align: left;">1、下圖選後政黨傾向以2024全國不分區政黨得票推估,未投票與無明顯傾向之政黨歸類『中立/其他』<br />2、以下得票率=得票數÷選舉人數<br /><span style="color: #cc0000;">賴得票 28.8% 約等於 泛綠 28.5% (+0.3%)<br /></span>侯得票 24.1% 低於 泛藍 25.5% (-1.4%)<br />柯得票 19.0% 高於 民眾黨 15.8% (+3.2%)</h3><div><br /></div><div><img border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FParty%2F2024%2F05-Party-2.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" /></div><div><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; font-size: 15px;">詳細資料連結:</span><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2022/12/2022-2024-taiwan-voters-structure.html" style="background: rgb(243, 243, 243); color: #0b5394; font-size: 15px; text-decoration-line: none;">2024 臺灣政治立場傾向追蹤</a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><h2 style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【結構模型六都得票分布推估與選舉結果】</span>沒有顯示系統性異常</h2></div><div><h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">賴在六都得票分布,台北市略高於系統推估,其餘五都皆與系統推估吻合</span><br />侯在六都得票分布,桃園市略低於系統推估,其餘五都皆與系統推估吻合<br />柯在六都得票分布,台北市較低於系統推估,其餘五都皆與系統推估吻合</h3><div><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVCt4TJhg81ZLEaXCj6fqfNfd4dkL2Wxkgeh49DLgt1osNGdZNJcLCdvchyphenhyphen7hlxzKVnDsvHNq_MwStUgdCdG7kZMT-UnDA9f7li-jLbhMok3vzWk5F6HeetCvBa8RKcal9I_NsHrQxZOqW6JA6nGDj7_PqWllKM9qvxuNsRO_gmIbsdEOh9l0sNzMu_FKo/s16000/2024%20%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E5%8F%83%E9%81%B8%E4%BA%BA%20%E5%85%AD%E9%83%BD%E5%BE%97%E7%A5%A8%E5%88%86%E5%B8%83%E6%8E%A8%E4%BC%B0%20%E8%88%87%20%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; font-size: 15px;">連結:</span><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2016/04/taiwan-election-geography.html" style="background: rgb(243, 243, 243); color: #f37d21; font-size: 15px; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">臺灣選舉地理:各直轄市及縣市的選民結構模型</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><h2 style="clear: both; text-align: left;">推論:<br />以上『民意調查』、『政黨傾向』與『台灣選舉地理』,<span style="color: #cc0000;">三者同時都出錯</span>的機率應該趨近於0,所以2024 總統大選作票機率趨近於0。</h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2020總統大選回顧】</span>如上,2020作票的可能性也趨近於0</h2><h2><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2019/10/2020-taiwan-presidential-election.html"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHwSRyHV7dVTQyadups0FZUezgDb3M3Tpz-Y_xled9Jj2-anqvcipjUR0T3yuOa31Og1A8bbdT12xP9ItlKRx7F7fyT-AOT5-Smu5mU4qye-_cVXTBff_gxo1E4RV5c7oL5ElNlh-m2VTDkkeYka84j44KQm8PyX-meWcIJOjDtZB_xhuVr83RBxYEEw/s16000/polls_pic_1.gif" /></a></h2><div><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; font-size: 15px;">--------</span></div><div style="background-color: #f3f3f3; font-size: 15px;"><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【相關預測】</span><span><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2024/01/2024-Taiwanese-presidential-election-Results.html">為什麼阿北當選機會渺茫</a>(按圖連結)</span></h2></div><div style="background-color: #f3f3f3; font-size: 15px;"><h2><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2024/01/2024-Taiwanese-presidential-election-Results.html"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5TPRhWZHLRhwc2kWMuzyHYxjb0_cNZwQt1I-9HZzBHqjOrMPTz5TFTyYKHZFREhCgw3hHPbGhd8oYjr9n7NyRgIfurLHB2ptsSG51mad9iP_BZo3SoNdKBHExtjiOncXbMG-BAnTXON2hQHK4hHtkbagQehGLy2LYVZSnX7yIhW6AKTqOrVVEVjs_US0Z/s16000/942419bb097f0de79db75884ab23720e.jpg" style="border: 0px; height: inherit; max-width: 100%;" /></a></h2></div></div></div>無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-84231476355288313212024-01-14T21:01:00.000+08:002024-01-14T21:01:18.992+08:002021-24 拜登民調追蹤:拜登政治聲望持續下降 連任之路陷苦戰<h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #0b5394;">自由派,偽自由主義之偽善者!</span></h2><h3 style="text-align: left;">平時善於創造更多的弱勢族群,堅信自己是一個自我犧牲的『人道主義』者,<br />困境之時第一個轉身棄你而去,且毫不臉紅的去犧牲別人的『現實主意』者。</h3><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2021-24拜登支持度--民調趨勢圖】</span></h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh68R7m9m9tmXVO_hb_R2J2PhyJo6FRXuyk3pnlutij8ra7jeZvnDZV7YzzsfVltoi4D32zySEOdSSSGMagcMaHeJifIMxxq_kD3LdCaEx2NsHJNmU-jFIuh4qM818ytgmYDd31pihDHg9_uEd3QzB4neGe5Fr4ODI_PvjeTNfS3gL-VxESCQCG9kWD62q/s16000/01-Biden-polls-trend.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div><div><div><div><div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2023-24 美國總統拜登支持度調查】</span>最新民調</h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><img border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F
%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FUS%2Fpresident-Approve%2F02-Biden-Approve.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" /></h2>
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<span face=""arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif" style="color: red;">民調資料來源連結</span><span face=""arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif" style="color: red;">:</span><span face=""arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif" style="color: blue;"><a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html" target="_blank">realclearpolitics.com</a></span><br />
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<h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【Gallup Daily】</span>Presidential Job Approval Center</h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><img alt="Gallup Daily" border="0" height="346" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https:/
%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FUS%2Fpresident-Approve%2FGallup.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="Gallup Daily" width="826" /></h2><div> 連結詳細資料:<a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx" target="_blank">Gallup Daily</a></div>
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<h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【Fivethirtyeight】</span>喬·拜登有多不受歡迎?</h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><img alt="喬·拜登有多不受歡迎" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https:/
%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FUS%2Fpresident-Approve%2F538.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="喬·拜登有多不受歡迎" width="828" /></h2>
連結詳細資料:<a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/" target="_blank">fivethirtyeight</a></div><div><br /></div><div><br />
<h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【美國總統拜登民意調查歷史資料】</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><img alt="美國總統拜登民意調查歷史資料" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https:/
%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FUS%2Fpresident-Approve%2FBiden-Approve-1.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="美國總統拜登民意調查歷史資料" /></h2><div><div>
所有民調歷史資料請連結:<a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html" target="_blank">realclearpolitics.com</a><br />
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<h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【相關預測】</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><a href="2024 美國總統參選人預測">2024</a><a href="2024 美國總統參選人預測">美國總統大選當選看好度追蹤</a>:</h2><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2022/11/2024-United-States-presidential-election.html"><img alt="2024美國總統大選當選看好度" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FInternational%2FUS%2F2024-1%2F01-candidate.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024美國總統大選當選看好度" /></a><div><br /></div></div><div>----------</div><div><br /></div>
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<h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【歷史資料】</span><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2017/04/2017-trump-approval.html">2017-2020美國總統川普民調追蹤</a></h2><div style="line-height: 25.6533px;"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></div><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2017/04/2017-trump-approval.html"><img alt="美國總統川普民調追蹤" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdt94rWYLxkFWq61P9RywRhiHylrxEu2HnRoSyAN4ep5CezxmD-sjhMEYjHV0hhKEtOf5SsBmSWPgvZFCeVwCwmUwvEgeLBdxrRMzyp56Gm7oVwXBQn9eiAvJBzCMinw8d9lfVs393ft3N/s16000/president-Approve-pic.png" title="美國總統川普民調追蹤" /></a>
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</div>無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-9508484389044807362024-01-13T16:51:00.108+08:002024-02-03T14:00:15.280+08:002024 總統大選結果:為什麼阿北當選機會渺茫<h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【為什麼阿北當選機會渺茫】</span></h2><div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><b>一、民調沒有站在阿北這邊</b></h2><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsuFMXcJUeWHjXNzetbW6ufTob8h_De1wrMvpLYWfq8gQ9Z9II_07AbJcxNHjytOO5UeeL4RlmdHizSo63Rf5_co53p3L1dSPnyMjOWwFlufinTBdRr_O-EoB4Z-azKsFQUbiszXIkVvOMbkM0APGx38WvBb2FhYSl4e3K_ssV-TaN7jkRz01wC_x0j5EG/s16000/02-polls_Linear_regression.png" /><br /><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2023/11/2024-Taiwanese-presidential-election.html">詳細資料連結:2024 總統大選預測</a></div><div><br /><h2 style="text-align: left;">二、民調的歷史試驗:阿北勝過侯有宜的機率只有1%</h2><div><h3></h3><h2 style="text-align: left;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhL-gmSOQ3FHq080qw-O4i7R-X_4b-V3Y3FhPCsCdAnRbw9sQJeu53CB5E4x50tfs-MqMLcOAWBELWSJL4NSqW2Pekz9eNGOY0cqsRAFE-iJLFtXGfPgUquG0pCIuK1tqwDf0j8Eel796nPKKJWz4OmahdGcFuR1okEa16-tdHAdk2na0FxVvDCzVaNMlPP/s16000/%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF%E8%88%87%E5%8B%9D%E7%8E%87.png" /></h2><div><br /></div><h2 style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span>三、台灣政黨傾向</span><span>沒有站在民眾黨這邊</span></h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FParty%2F2024%2F05-Party-2.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" /><span>詳細資料連結:<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2022/12/2022-2024-taiwan-voters-structure.html">2024 臺灣政治立場傾向追蹤</a></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span>四、台灣選舉地理也沒有</span><span>站在阿北這邊</span></h2><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3U3nQ255BqXTw7NHw4dzZNPADQRRzNuBEzdnM_a7cD8IZvgxaGw9D6-Pu2tII9sMTC7aYT_8KGNcJVOoIjtTEoQVM6MdMB5lxN89tkor_Xc4H9H38JZsKIUQxtX9Zy_0RFLiaBUnb_ksxPIElnIwr5GTNAvPy-6Fyr-jWryoL8NabN8yV39C5UsCZ8WH8/s16000/%E5%8F%B0%E7%81%A3%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%86.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">詳細資料連結:<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2023/06/polls-cross-analysis.html">2024 選舉地理模型驗證總統大選得票</a></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span>五、只有沒穿褲子的柯學民調站在</span><span>阿北這邊:</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">近30年來總統大選第一個把詐騙赤裸裸地搬上檯面</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5TPRhWZHLRhwc2kWMuzyHYxjb0_cNZwQt1I-9HZzBHqjOrMPTz5TFTyYKHZFREhCgw3hHPbGhd8oYjr9n7NyRgIfurLHB2ptsSG51mad9iP_BZo3SoNdKBHExtjiOncXbMG-BAnTXON2hQHK4hHtkbagQehGLy2LYVZSnX7yIhW6AKTqOrVVEVjs_US0Z/s16000/942419bb097f0de79db75884ab23720e.jpg" /></h2><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"> </div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfT9iN4mwLzi5BKCNW6JbnQLkT8S0ecRBpjCKvhMhpP8V9NHhx5dtp1GmIDePHw0BP1JhveBvJwjlQxg0Lc-chwPB1Tqn3uMaLAck6LWx_fklps0dNmLZZRhnmIJ3u_GTFClN-it6j0SGdu7ysRKQTTibt9aaniypxqaHl_p9v4bjzhWKGw-ydgG9UuR1v/s16000/2024%20%E6%B0%91%E7%9C%BE%E9%BB%A8%E5%85%A7%E5%8F%83%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC%20%20%E4%B8%8D%E7%94%A8%E7%AD%89%E5%88%B0%E9%80%80%E6%BD%AE%E5%B0%B1%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E9%98%BF%E5%8C%97%E5%9C%A8%E8%A3%B8%E6%B3%B3.png" /></div><div><b>註:<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2023/12/polls-pk.html">連結詳細預測資料</a></b></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP9Cwq7OIRmKHAIol25z_sYOW-OyYcWh97gO3vXvcD8YFlW3wft8L5t0TENEVYhPeDVH4OWcfSYQ4qE9AC4HorhEiWMLU4UadDT3CXTvpA-Nbvtjcif60eTHNR1oGQsR2Z9oLbaN40w0omy0Wx-7qlhUhDWjOgXmjbzPjosQKYypxMAD2loSoGxCNBW4Gk/s16000/03-polls-TMD.png" /><div class="separator" style="background-color: #f3f3f3; clear: both; font-size: 15px;"><b style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: medium;">註:<a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E6%B0%91%E6%84%8F%E8%AA%BF%E6%9F%A5#%E5%90%84%E9%99%A3%E7%87%9F%E5%85%A7%E5%8F%83%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF" style="background: transparent; color: #0b5394; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">連結民調資料來源</a> </span></b></div></div><div><b><br /></b><h2 style="text-align: left;">板主依照近幾年總統大選結果,設定選戰最後的策略性投票是<br />侯的得票=民調粗估值+2%<br />柯的得票=民調粗估值 - 2%</h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">結果竟然是老三把老二棄保:柯+2%,侯-2%</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">只能說民眾黨的內參民調威力十足</span></h2><h2><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRwprdJ966X4OzmrpXYrnSQmZoWOTGGLy19qjmn-cms46RsFTDSoLo2ru3khp9Ohyphenhyphen2kJG-jW-ELY6Pat0QLtZ4AsPBI8IP9aOv9uE2_1WqPDWKwWH4lyseMIS52npe-cp5-fT5R6_FC2wEYBefL340Kq8ZfgEAc0g9VVvIvUUqno26EgvgUq6vc_mffquD/s16000/2024%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E5%A4%A7%E9%81%B8%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5%E8%A1%8C%E6%8A%95%E7%A5%A8.png" /></h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">關於街頭有派對</span></h2><h3 style="text-align: left;">至於街頭有派對,他們可能真心認為阿北可能會當選(和4年前的孫先生一樣,反正賺賺流量也不是一件壞事),還特地到維基百科,硬是把阿北的民調資料放在勝選的位置上,最後弄個不怎麼科學的『街頭專欄』,只能放在其他民調的欄位。</h3><div><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQM_vWZ1OuBDD3FmGE6ZDx0AUjPobprQD2_i4FDaX33uvudnMyoXBShvcbq-DuDkeljaL9UDfIUbAJuVLZJiHP5QmLQ_EaQG2zb63ymHfF2rZrb6aUXr6qTCPhANUw6tWib4ODq9GHfKwkrcaajwISkwTwtHKZrOq9LcaEVRaCzWRu1xPecB0PtakoiXrq/s16000/03-polls-1.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">說明:街頭民調可能會受到地點、時間、主觀等因素影響,因此不推估得票率。</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2028再陪阿北玩一次嗎?】</span></h2></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span>先看看美國史上最成功的第三勢力總統候選人:Ross Perot</span></h2><h2><span><div><span style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;"></span></span></div></span><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiN6hyjxCB9-0xA6ui5GBt-N9zu-ceeCyvHkKpWsz_Nsc8eV_azKo5dfuRxyqFzd8tSm2ziA9HPqy5xkyDZPQc7pUxMYjx3gLqkbGbHLUD0QB99k7moFhzOp8Ll9G0dmx3uI9uttHnF1M-BiYlQo66i8bS7LXbi9W2-d8OvFSuGMyrVCjEPsGTlP1xCog0c/s16000/3pqtvoogk5gyzk7z6j08124zrx6vr9.jpg" /></div></div><span><div><span style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzHaySc4WCyjryvHNbzh4GLzBi2NrV6-Aij2beBPJsodJGlb4gTPPpQ6Cr1Qi0i5w4fqFgf1Hbrqbq9VY0PBje1AYwdXtQmgC7dex3_7yuhaF4cz_uvu1amkEnmGjP4mV1-W-A7XB1oEQDwDbxXwbOEzv2dgftdM5Duq9wuSjeu8yEW4IxPCf_Sc8nXv3Y/s16000/1992-96%E5%B9%B4%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89.png" /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-size: small;">--------</span></div><div><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="color: #cc0000;">【後記】</span><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2024/01/vote.html">2024 總統大選到底有沒有作票?</a></div><div></div></span></h2><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2024/01/vote.html"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZW2vyfEjHD7YgLwBkvLPb84sRBg5C7lvFmN_GcWq_qOX3WmyIaZjYamp9Aad1qD_sS7cKTKj9toCCJv7xI8rfICPyp6XTlJZii0lbiIJlchta1boGTvXTUIUX4teY4i7AkKF9Jl9Lj8-sH6gMmK2JH2h0mKWVJymlf9Liy-KGYGMyZ3ENspWx__WqDMDs/s16000/%E6%84%9B%E8%8E%89%E8%8E%8E%E8%8E%8E%E3%80%8C%E8%B3%AA%E7%96%91%E4%BD%9C%E7%A5%A8%E3%80%8D.jpg" /></a></div></div>無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-21279792824239145262024-01-02T21:43:00.017+08:002024-01-15T15:18:27.072+08:002024 總統大選預測: 民進黨可望史無前例地邁向第三任期<h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2024 總統大選預測】</span></h2><div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">2024年中華民國總統副總統選舉(第8次直選),預計於2024年1月13日舉行,與第11屆立法委員選舉共同構成「2024年中華民國中央公職人員選舉」,將採用普通、直接、平等、無記名、單記、相對多數投票制度。當選人將於2024年5月20日宣誓就職。第14、15任總統蔡英文將於2024年5月20日任期屆滿,因已連任一次,所以此次無法再度競選。</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjM5bcX-pU6IKCmeEyEiAPkeg7T0jo1DKPwnxqrmOV81DbJg6u1lKnTlk5VNdZTKbtnvdoCdKxpcQiY0RPORKu-xlmf_lnBfez3i4__ddM3VoPdC08WWyWfpp3rbdqP9nntkBSLLZnx4ds3xJV9bE36lbAt7rdoDdOd4qqdau2RAKSwtDbtxsAeKCtvMZZh/s16000/01-2024-prediction.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【預測變動紀錄表】</span></h2></div><div><img alt="預測變動紀錄表" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpresident-2024%2F02-change.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="預測變動紀錄表" /></div><div><br /></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【民意調查】</span></h2><h2><img alt="民意調查" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpresident-2024%2F03-polls.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="民意調查" /><img alt="民意調查推估總統大選得票率" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpresident-2024%2F03-polls-1.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="民意調查推估總統大選得票率" /><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><span>註:1、</span><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E6%B0%91%E6%84%8F%E8%AA%BF%E6%9F%A5#%E8%B3%B4%E3%80%81%E4%BE%AF%E3%80%81%E6%9F%AF%E5%B0%8D%E6%B1%BA" target="_blank">連結民調資料來源</a> (或參考下方留言板) 2、<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2019/10/2020-taiwan-presidential-election.html" target="_blank">機構效應調整後得票中間值參考2020總統大選預測資料</a></b></span></h2><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【可能</span><span style="color: #cc0000;">得票率 與 勝選機率 】</span></h2><h2><img alt="得票率與勝率" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpresident-2024%2F02-Win-rate-1.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="得票率與勝率" /></h2><div><br /></div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【勝選機率 與 當選機會】</span></h2><div><span style="color: #cc0000;"><h2 style="color: black;"><img alt="勝選機率與當選機會" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpresident-2024%2F02-Win-rate.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="勝選機率與當選機會" /></h2><div><br /></div></span></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【民調趨勢圖一】</span><span>所有民調『標準化平均移動』趨勢</span></h2></div><div><h2><img alt="民調趨勢圖" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpresident-2024%2F02-polls_Linear_regression.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="民調趨勢圖" /></h2></div><div><br /></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【民調趨勢圖二】</span><span>美麗島滾動民調『標準化平均</span>移動』趨勢</h2></div><div><span><h2><img alt="美麗島滾動民調" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpresident-2024%2F02-polls_Linear_regression_formosa.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="美麗島滾動民調" /></h2><div>資料來源:<a href="http://www.my-formosa.com/Topical/formosapollster" target="_blank">美麗島民調</a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div></span></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div>--------------------</div></div><div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【歷史回顧】</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;">1、<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2019/10/2020-taiwan-presidential-election.html">2020 總統大選預測</a>(按圖連結預測資料)</h2><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2019/10/2020-taiwan-presidential-election.html"><img alt="2020 總統大選預測" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHwSRyHV7dVTQyadups0FZUezgDb3M3Tpz-Y_xled9Jj2-anqvcipjUR0T3yuOa31Og1A8bbdT12xP9ItlKRx7F7fyT-AOT5-Smu5mU4qye-_cVXTBff_gxo1E4RV5c7oL5ElNlh-m2VTDkkeYka84j44KQm8PyX-meWcIJOjDtZB_xhuVr83RBxYEEw/s16000/polls_pic_1.gif" title="2020 總統大選預測" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;">2、<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2016/01/2016-presidential-election-5.html">2016 總統大選預測</a>(按圖連結預測資料)</h2><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2016/01/2016-presidential-election-5.html"><img alt="2016 總統大選預測" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEinWtvZENV3My1_MqnYSKpjDiG6zSEp0UPypXtrYjEzcCz4S8JTP2V8CXWckEfLTaTkpupF9uOosELjvInZpR7LpI8-2lnjJapFHQud-YJGFxNM3_lvnbpo_DR4oimKc7dc8ZKHCRnA3IkzUv-0UOzLM9ZT80FxXftRilOfyRvXNnyUy2W3Vtax542cbw=s16000" title="2016 總統大選預測" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;">2012 總統大選:民調平均趨勢圖</h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img alt="2012 總統大選" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEincrEnIOAHH8_zzfHpunlZgkg4KUszIo1wDh7xIzKFhBBQ5E664mU3kp4vP8Hu_2B2TK2qXVxDfNCXChzR42nD6Kf6IHBHBPjAoQGzUhoPwY6ZYm5c8xd4vNj7ad5uURPn9wm7Se5aofaW/s16000/2014-12-03_174953.gif" style="background-color: #f3f3f3; border: 0px; font-size: 15px; height: inherit; max-width: 100%;" title="2012 總統大選" /></div></div><div><br /></div><div>--------------------------</div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【後記】</span></h2></div></div></div></div></div>無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com35tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-43377839587929098722024-01-02T20:01:00.011+08:002024-01-29T15:41:10.994+08:002023 臺灣政治立場傾向追蹤:<h2 style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【最新民意調查彙整統計】</span></h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeimwnPLHZXfgXyydEJCOhrZsQ0teuPH55Jfv7PSEwymgxxXf3e-vWSd6gh1w8UfynVG4xnTuVsbde1AIn6DHVe0beODpJkb5GFLp7wOp69U2NW-EUcwcJujHWj7HrrKHqgazBjzhi8vpvGcyW8-pApHa0yhXTOX00_gSRR50o4Xm6cMVCyuYURIwqiF8A/s16000/00-Party-new.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【臺灣政治立場傾向】</span></h2><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><div><div>1、政治立場傾向民調來源:TVBS、政大選研、台灣民意基金會(山水)與美麗島民調</div><div>2、趨勢圖為上述民調之政黨支持度彙整加權(依調查時間序列加權)後之算術平均數</div></div></span></div><img alt="臺灣政治立場傾向趨勢圖" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FParty%2F2024%2F05-Party-2.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="臺灣政治立場傾向趨勢圖" /><div><b> </b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2024 主要總統參選人得票預估】</span></h2><div><span><span style="font-size: medium;">1、得票率預測:以可能參選人之民意調查及上表之臺灣政治立場傾向交叉推估。</span></span></div><div><span><span style="font-size: medium;">2、<b>虛線部份</b>為含趨勢之預估值,隨當月新發布之民調不定時更新。</span></span></div><div><span><span style="font-size: medium;">3、詳細民調數據請參考:</span></span><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2023/11/2024-Taiwanese-presidential-election.html" target="_blank">2024 總統參選人預測網頁</a></span></div><img alt="2024 可能總統參選人得票預測趨勢圖" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FParty%2F2024%2F06-presidential-candidate.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024 可能總統參選人得票預測趨勢圖" /><div><b> </b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2024 主要總統參選人縣市得票分布推估】</span></h2><div><span><span><div>1、縣市得票分布推估以<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2016/04/taiwan-election-geography.html" target="_blank">臺灣選舉地理:各直轄市及縣市的選民結構模型</a>推估(已更新2020總統得票及政黨得票 )</div><div>2、數據可能經常變動,資料僅供參考。</div><div><br /></div><div><h3 style="clear: both;">註:下表以總統大選預測推估,選後將更新為選舉結果,以便驗證各縣市得票結果與模型之差距</h3><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">下表尚未更新</span></b></div></div></span></span></div><img alt="2024 可能總統參選人得票分布推估" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FParty%2F2024%2F07-City-County.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024 可能總統參選人得票分布推估" /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【區域立委選區支持率推估】</span></h2><div><span><b style="font-size: x-large;"><img alt="2024 立委選區支持率推估-1" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FParty%2F2024%2F08-Legislators-1.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" style="font-size: medium; font-weight: 400;" title="2024 立委選區支持率推估-1" /></b></span></div><div><span><span style="font-size: medium;"><b style="font-size: x-large;"><img alt="2024 立委選區支持率推估-2" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FParty%2F2024%2F08-Legislators-2.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" style="font-size: medium; font-weight: 400;" title="2024 立委選區支持率推估-2" /></b></span></span></div><div><span><span><b> </b></span></span>*註:立委選舉區支持率推估模型請連結---<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2016/04/taiwan-election-geography.html" target="_blank">臺灣選舉地理:選民結構模型(二)</a></div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【縣市政黨偏好】</span><span>民進黨、國民黨、時力、民眾黨 選民結構分布推估</span></h2><div><b style="font-size: x-large;"><img alt="民進黨、國民黨、時力、民眾黨 選民結構分布推估" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FParty%2F2024%2F09-Party-City-County.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" style="font-size: medium; font-weight: 400;" title="民進黨、國民黨、時力、民眾黨 選民結構分布推估" /></b></div><div><br /></div></div><div><b>------------</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【TVBS民調】 </span>『政黨傾向』交叉表彙整</h2><div><img alt="2024 可能總統參選人得票預測趨勢圖" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FParty%2F2024%2F01-TVBS.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024 可能總統參選人得票預測趨勢圖" /></div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【美麗島民調】 </span>台灣民眾政黨傾向的追蹤分析</h2><div><img alt="2024 可能總統參選人得票預測趨勢圖" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FParty%2F2024%2F02-formosa.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024 可能總統參選人得票預測趨勢圖" /></div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【山水民調】</span>台灣民意基金-台灣人的政黨支持傾向</h2></div><img alt="台灣民意基金-台灣人的政黨支持傾向" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FParty%2F2024%2F04-fsr.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="台灣民意基金-台灣人的政黨支持傾向" /><div><b><br /></b></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【國立政治大學選舉研究中心】</span>臺灣民眾政黨偏好趨勢分佈</h2><div><img alt="國立政治大學選舉研究中心臺灣民眾政黨偏好趨勢分佈" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FParty%2F2024%2F03-nccu.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="國立政治大學選舉研究中心臺灣民眾政黨偏好趨勢分佈" /></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>----------</b></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【歷史回顧】</span>按圖連結詳細資料</h2><h2 style="text-align: left;">1、<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2019/01/2019-taiwan-voters-structure.html"><span style="color: #cc0000;">2020總統大選</span>: 臺灣選民結構追蹤與各縣市選民分布推估</a></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2019/01/2019-taiwan-voters-structure.html"><img alt="2019/1-2020/1 臺灣選民結構追蹤與各縣市選民分布推估" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/proxy/AVvXsEhIKOO4Ku75nSFKImXzYAz_Fse36JCgbjYYEnVeeVfNaxphjqTFjhMnOKCvnxB2maaA-pwUGpWKl_DYzLsA97yLCrYxc8ou8PSMP6d9Mvr4MfmyL1VaMQdLB3pIhyphenhyphenDtVcl9wRpjHu-5fedZ0Zjrpyg=s16000" title="2019/1-2020/1 臺灣選民結構追蹤與各縣市選民分布推估" /></a></h2><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><h2 style="text-align: left;">2、<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2017/11/2017-taiwan-voters-structure.html"><span style="color: #cc0000;">2018縣市長選戰</span>: 臺灣選民結構追蹤與各縣市選民分布推估</a></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2017/11/2017-taiwan-voters-structure.html"><img alt="2018/2-2019/1 臺灣選民結構追蹤與各縣市選民分布推估" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEgL9E8AxTcZnJ_StSWFqJ0OfU05tx3sAgyfcofDgZJyZOr9IwHPla28DGhlQT_FQOq_iu6_Lo3Wtbg49GXmGHTB1ulPkuoknEYpnS5dGA9hg5EF3UnlNsDGjc4W_6-O4kO89VAD_5FdpW/s16000/05-Party-3.gif" title="2018/2-2019/1 臺灣選民結構追蹤與各縣市選民分布推估" /></a></h2></div>無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-33974630542457444962024-01-02T18:39:00.005+08:002024-02-03T15:23:31.765+08:002024 選舉地理模型驗證總統大選得票:地區交叉表倒推全國得票率<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><h3 style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipGSVfEuTF2QQiGRUKQtaJghyVyGkvFXI5W-M6vskNH4VgxkJybhotmqbZ-G_R8L-vA8z8BC0UStIC5FpWa8gD52j7ZZrleYIAZft1Xm3KmY1jAGIie44_HJODPoGrxvn0zCkXrOseHiPmZW6TdRlekuZVgsw9Jf-xyAjHEKxpn-fPlVH_ARlF9cqt-zmN/s16000/regions-to-national.png" /></h3></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【北北基】</span></h2><img alt="2024總統大選北北基民調交叉分析" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpolls-cross-analysis%2FTaipei-Keelung.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024總統大選北北基民調交叉分析" /><div><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">註:→ </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E6%B0%91%E6%84%8F%E8%AA%BF%E6%9F%A5#%E8%B3%B4%E3%80%81%E4%BE%AF%E3%80%81%E6%9F%AF%E5%B0%8D%E6%B1%BA" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #0b5394; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">連結民調資料來源</a><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"> </span></span></b></div><div><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><br /></span></span></b></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【桃竹苗】</span></h2></div></div><img alt="2024總統大選桃竹苗民調交叉分析" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpolls-cross-analysis%2FTaoyuan-Hsinchu-Miaoli.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024總統大選桃竹苗民調交叉分析" /><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【中彰投】</span></h2><img alt="2024總統大選中彰投民調交叉分析" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpolls-cross-analysis%2FTaichung-Changhua-Nantou.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024總統大選中彰投民調交叉分析" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【雲嘉南】</span></h2><h2><img alt="2024總統大選雲嘉南民調交叉分析" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpolls-cross-analysis%2FYunlin-Chiayi-Tainan.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024總統大選雲嘉南民調交叉分析" /></h2><div><br /></div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【高屏】</span></h2><h2><img alt="2024總統大選高屏民調交叉分析" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpolls-cross-analysis%2FKaohsiung-Pingtung.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024總統大選高屏民調交叉分析" /></h2></div><div><br /></div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【各直轄市及縣市得票推估】</span></h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><h2>連結詳細資料:<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2022/12/2022-2024-taiwan-voters-structure.html">2024 總統參選人縣市得票分布推估</a></h2><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2022/12/2022-2024-taiwan-voters-structure.html"><img alt="2024 總統參選人縣市得票分布推估" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FParty%2F2024%2F07-City-County.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024 總統參選人縣市得票分布推估" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">----------</div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【附件】</span><span>關於『選民結構』之迴歸分析</span></h2><div><span style="color: #cc0000;"><h2 style="clear: both; color: black;">連結→ <a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2016/04/taiwan-election-geography.html" target="_blank">臺灣選舉地理:各直轄市及縣市的選民結構模型</a></h2></span><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2016/04/taiwan-election-geography.html" target="_blank"><img alt="關於『選民結構』之迴歸分析" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpolls-cross-analysis%2Fregression-analysis.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="關於『選民結構』之迴歸分析" /></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">註:2023/12月數據為<span style="color: #cc0000;">預估值</span>,選後將更新為2024總統與政黨投票結果。</span></b></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【後記】</span></h2></div></div></div></div>無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-79106339960693940942024-01-02T10:31:00.004+08:002024-01-13T22:09:12.413+08:002024 立委總席次預測:總統得票率推估立委總席次<div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: large;">2024 中華民國第11屆立法委員選舉,於2024年1月13日舉行,與第16任總統選舉同日舉行。</span></div></div></div></div></div><span style="font-size: medium;">本屆選舉為立法院採用單一選區兩票制之後的第5次選舉。總席次共計113席,其中73席區域立法委員採單一選區制選出,3席平地原住民立法委員、3席山地原住民立法委員採複數選區制選出,34席全國不分區採比例代表制選出。全體當選人於2024年2月1日暫定宣誓就職。</span></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2024 立委總席次預測】</span></h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8Iep-tG_oalKnYQDNrwINhToqzNdJq4V4O3tPEzfX4uksRNRl4VLbSj-CvK6ph6Ba-hwtmwT9K_EIjo82UqaYwJKnFWJUJ1tX7bE3J5enPjmfljhK2mFXRz-eLEpwYwj4iSksOJxbjBrYf-C6nH9vsr_FB8Qbae5U347R1ZubZ7nl740ftjdyjz_1Rgxj/s16000/Party-Seats-list.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【總席次預測變動表】</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><img alt="總席次預測變動表" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Flegislator%2F02-change-Party-Seats-list.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="總席次預測變動表" /></h2><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【不分區政黨席次預測】</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><img alt="不分區政黨席次預測" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Flegislator%2FParty-Seats.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="不分區政黨席次預測" /></h2><div><br /></div><span style="color: #cc0000;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><h2 style="color: black;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【不分區席次預測變動表】</span></h2></div><h2 style="color: black;"><img alt="不分區席次預測變動表" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Flegislator%2F03-change-Party-Seats.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="不分區席次預測變動表" /></h2><div><br /></div></span><div><span><div style="color: #cc0000;"><h2 style="color: black;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【不分區立委投票意向調查】</span></h2></div></span><b style="font-size: large;">→ <a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E6%B0%91%E6%84%8F%E8%AA%BF%E6%9F%A5#%E8%B3%B4%E3%80%81%E4%BE%AF%E3%80%81%E6%9F%AF%E5%B0%8D%E6%B1%BA" target="_blank">連結民調資料來源</a></b></div><div><img border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Flegislator%2F03-poll-Party-Seats.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" /></div><div><br /></div><div> <div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2024總統得票預測推估區域立委當選人】</span></h2><h2>詳細當選人預測請連結:<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2023/03/regional-legislator.html">2024 區域立委當選人預測網頁</a></h2></div><h2><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2023/03/regional-legislator.html"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFgKgA_5MaXM71vRCbcKvnEuQMdhIsTfiJER1nOw8onED1Cy3Zumymx-2bT-M4aVEMshl9xtAlYcQOv-V_tH65I1Lt4ZUuyCnOY9Lsihwj99i4aJtQJmiftY9_e_EVsItspe12nvqA6c_6V9AT0owWwkGKNIWTDkOLwumoSxw0sDtNvDu1_mXq35PLzCqU/s16000/regional-legislator-1.png" /></a></h2></div><div><br /></div><div><div>-------------------</div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【歷史回顧】</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;">2020 不分區立委席次預測</h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2019/11/34-party-seats.html" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #f37d21; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;"><img alt="2020 全國不分區立委席次預測" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/proxy/AVvXsEi2YPO451yiQn4kwFvUts8cm8IRtu4e6nHM7Zon6Fr5WovTF0XFOEuGmtsG-WJxLtjt0UEe_Hdnh98VdrV3dOB9XqQlnDTBoInAD__VnONBTX15sG5XEcrydGXbw6RHr5JQZPCJYPTQ9tyKr_e0VXD-EwuyLL9teg=s16000" style="border: 0px; height: inherit; max-width: 100%;" title="2020 全國不分區立委席次預測" /></a></h2></div></div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;">2016立法委員選舉總席次預測 </h2><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2015/12/2016-legislative-election-seats.html"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicciQ-FZREIaJrcPtNniZqe5FAEdvIp-hx0y8RYVNnj6Dp-5ut4eQM3Yqgx_xxqyBl1kHfXQllQhFlV7sCD4DEsDeGeP7XPYzutGl0KMEUlQapfXuKKmRlkwTm5ReWM3qFTHVGphdD0d-9/s1600/2016%25E7%25AB%258B%25E6%25B3%2595%25E5%25A7%2594%25E5%2593%25A1%25E9%2581%25B8%25E8%2588%2589%25E7%25B8%25BD%25E5%25B8%25AD%25E6%25AC%25A1%25E9%25A0%2590%25E6%25B8%25AC.gif" /></a>無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-12613955290626518932024-01-02T10:30:00.006+08:002024-01-13T21:43:46.650+08:002024 區域立委當選人預測: 總統局連動立委局<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><h2 style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2024區域立委預測】</span></h2></div></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span>下表<span style="color: #cc0000;">『選民結構』</span>以2024總統得票率</span>預測推估</h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFgKgA_5MaXM71vRCbcKvnEuQMdhIsTfiJER1nOw8onED1Cy3Zumymx-2bT-M4aVEMshl9xtAlYcQOv-V_tH65I1Lt4ZUuyCnOY9Lsihwj99i4aJtQJmiftY9_e_EVsItspe12nvqA6c_6V9AT0owWwkGKNIWTDkOLwumoSxw0sDtNvDu1_mXq35PLzCqU/s16000/regional-legislator-1.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img alt="2024區域立委預測2" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Flegislator%2Fregional-legislator-2.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024區域立委預測2" /></div><img border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Flegislator%2Fregional-legislator-3.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" /><div><br /></div><div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2024總統得票預測推估區域立委選區選民結構】</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><img alt="區域立委選區選民結構1" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FParty%2F2024%2F08-Legislators-1.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="區域立委選區選民結構1" /><img alt="區域立委選區選民結構2" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FParty%2F2024%2F08-Legislators-2.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="區域立委選區選民結構2" /><span style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">註:<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2022/12/2022-2024-taiwan-voters-structure.html">詳細資料請參閱:政黨偏好、政治立場傾向與縣市選民結構分布推估網頁</a></span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><div><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div></h2><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【相關預測】<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2023/11/2024-Taiwanese-presidential-election.html">2024 總統大選預測</a></span></h2></div><div><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2023/11/2024-Taiwanese-presidential-election.html"><img border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpresident-2024%2F01-2024-prediction.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><div><span style="font-size: small;"></span></div><div><span style="font-size: small;">-----------------<br /></span></div></h2><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【附錄】</span><span>關於『區域立委選區選民結構』之迴歸分析</span></h2><div><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2022/12/2022-2024-taiwan-voters-structure.html"></a><h2 style="text-align: left;">連結→<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2016/04/taiwan-election-geography.html" target="_blank">臺灣選舉地理:各直轄市及縣市的選民結構模型</a></h2><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEio5ma_oCt2gtR85K9h3X0ItsSMjISE-EvW1b9dPLJLJJ97DHXXmfLb6inF2T5pFbzQ8jf0aQHhalrVMJ2CaZ489DqcAs1v_toXk27dcNvRrl_2DcBn468WJqBq2C5nI63UmrDts3XsosZCHHJ-zyp_YxPjB6aZnV5zau-UAPGHU4XaLn_HzaZmP5hO_QbY/s16000/TP01.png" /></div></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>註:2023/12月 數據為<span style="color: #cc0000;">預估值</span>,選後將更新為2024總統與政黨投票結果。</b></span></div>無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-28068306378621596092024-01-01T19:34:00.051+08:002024-01-16T08:54:47.489+08:002024 民眾黨內參民調預測:不用等到退潮就知道阿北在裸泳<h2 style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><b style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">當詐騙赤裸裸地搬上檯面,無情真實的預測也瘋狂!</span></b></h2><div><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifcQ-AuWfQxvA25x2tjPhA2do_I6MHoNnaFWrx3FZDizhgT2YwKMe4Vymb4K0OpWR037zXwh_Da_w4qerWWT2X4_b35LfMuy3x7L3dE_oOZuk3PUfFEn3UJRdruAaS4-2CVWflIL0tTR8Z8PpMI8ZpI2G9VvGVqF-3Jtj961iMpztrfih5pu_9ZDPPrXER/s16000/942419bb097f0de79db75884ab23720e.jpg" /></div><div><br /></div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2024 民眾黨內參民調預測】</span></h2><div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfT9iN4mwLzi5BKCNW6JbnQLkT8S0ecRBpjCKvhMhpP8V9NHhx5dtp1GmIDePHw0BP1JhveBvJwjlQxg0Lc-chwPB1Tqn3uMaLAck6LWx_fklps0dNmLZZRhnmIJ3u_GTFClN-it6j0SGdu7ysRKQTTibt9aaniypxqaHl_p9v4bjzhWKGw-ydgG9UuR1v/s16000/2024%20%E6%B0%91%E7%9C%BE%E9%BB%A8%E5%85%A7%E5%8F%83%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC%20%20%E4%B8%8D%E7%94%A8%E7%AD%89%E5%88%B0%E9%80%80%E6%BD%AE%E5%B0%B1%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E9%98%BF%E5%8C%97%E5%9C%A8%E8%A3%B8%E6%B3%B3.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【民眾黨內參民調 】</span></h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP9Cwq7OIRmKHAIol25z_sYOW-OyYcWh97gO3vXvcD8YFlW3wft8L5t0TENEVYhPeDVH4OWcfSYQ4qE9AC4HorhEiWMLU4UadDT3CXTvpA-Nbvtjcif60eTHNR1oGQsR2Z9oLbaN40w0omy0Wx-7qlhUhDWjOgXmjbzPjosQKYypxMAD2loSoGxCNBW4Gk/s16000/03-polls-TMD.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span><span>註:</span></span><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E6%B0%91%E6%84%8F%E8%AA%BF%E6%9F%A5#%E5%90%84%E9%99%A3%E7%87%9F%E5%85%A7%E5%8F%83%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF" target="_blank">連結民調資料來源</a><span> </span></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span><br /></span></span></b></div><h2><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #cc0000; text-align: left;"></div></span></span></b></h2><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【純手機民調 】</span></h2><h2><img alt="純手機民調" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTgZ_ygpapEArDmGPl6Sla5qzApjrCJaDrn400icsBynsLF0YR6VyEoNrgrb1ORK78sORaJ_RErD84VZM5Jup31DxAttL2v5X0xaTz0qxD897SuMS1-uvNCFUj1Alq17aYINqGWEL7Ti5o1fTWNwDkD1Lty1rOlBh5OFGz4zQA3UPvQb_2j2jJ3bLEClzS/s16000/03-polls-phone.png" title="純手機民調" /><b style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span><span>註:</span></span><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E6%B0%91%E6%84%8F%E8%AA%BF%E6%9F%A5#%E5%90%84%E9%99%A3%E7%87%9F%E5%85%A7%E5%8F%83%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF" target="_blank">連結民調資料來源</a><span> </span></span></b></h2><div><b style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span><br /></span></span></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【附錄】</span><span>街頭民調</span></h2><h2><span style="font-size: medium;">說明:街頭民調可能會受到地點、時間、主觀等因素影響,因此不推估得票率。</span></h2><h2><span><img alt="街頭民調" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH3IVfOupn9vMRKi1n9KjPlQPxpp6KqqY671S_X6xVLFDBYtbgYotkcNfCIj8IwL0blH49dn1U-yMKFP5cts5wCo9e1ObP9FcLLPbAaIAfigGoRHovuDEfOwMb07UnXqb1P0kNfsSE5CGXzbitK0yrdsi8YWOisqDGAX7Mj5JcvgToX1FNuqlhAly3kqFE/s16000/03-polls-1.png" title="街頭民調" /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span><span>註:</span></span><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E6%B0%91%E6%84%8F%E8%AA%BF%E6%9F%A5#%E8%A1%97%E9%A0%AD%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF" target="_blank">連結民調資料來源</a></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #cc0000; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #cc0000; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: small;">-----</span></div></span></h2></div></div><div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【相關資料一】台灣政黨傾向沒有站在民眾黨這邊</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #444444;"><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2022/12/2022-2024-taiwan-voters-structure.html">2023/12月 臺灣政治立場傾向追蹤</a></span></h2></div></div></div><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2022/12/2022-2024-taiwan-voters-structure.html"><img alt="2023/12 臺灣政治立場傾向追蹤" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FParty%2F2024%2F05-Party-2.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2023/12 臺灣政治立場傾向追蹤" /></a><div><br /></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【相關資料二】台灣選舉地理也沒有站在阿北這邊</span></h2><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;"><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2023/06/polls-cross-analysis.html">總統大選民調之地區交叉表彙整</a></span></h2><h2><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2023/06/polls-cross-analysis.html"><img alt="2024 選舉地理模型驗證總統大選得票:地區交叉表倒推全國得票率" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpolls-cross-analysis%2Fregions-to-national.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024 選舉地理模型驗證總統大選得票:地區交叉表倒推全國得票率" /></a></h2></div>無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-13097211775836549372023-11-23T08:30:00.018+08:002024-01-13T16:44:06.605+08:002024 總統大選藍白合紀念板:引領台灣走向內閣制 ...絢爛的煙火 <h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">台灣超級總統制是個大災難</span></h2><h2><span><div><span style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-size: medium;">休謨希望得到的和平、自由與公正,非來自人們的善良品性,而是來自健全的制度——</span></span></div><div><span style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-size: medium;">這一制度使得即使是壞人,在他們追逐各種事務以滿足自己的私慾時,也為公共的好處做了事。</span><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">--------海耶克(F.A.Hayek) </span></span></div><div><span style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></div></span>絢爛的煙火........</h2><h2>藍白合→聯合政府→改變政治文化→走向內閣制的憲政遠景........</h2><h2><br /><span><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2024 總統大選預測】</span></span></h2><div><span style="font-size: medium;">2024年中華民國總統副總統選舉(第8次直選),預計於2024年1月13日舉行,與第11屆立法委員選舉共同構成「2024年中華民國中央公職人員選舉」,將採用普通、直接、平等、無記名、單記、相對多數投票制度。當選人將於2024年5月20日宣誓就職。第14、15任總統蔡英文將於2024年5月20日任期屆滿,因已連任一次,所以此次無法再度競選。</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img alt="2024 總統大選預測" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNPTBGbsAUFAiI4xZibNQeXLaP0YayX0fZ06_-yjQqsjB_nrSqTx6W8_9qbkVgubvON9djKaJGl8j8DLVCylcmF7Y7wQaxSbIUrSs4XRRsHcmlJrX0TOZb5ma-dDr_ZlbWO5inDgrqkH5OpxzqK0lRNJYLrJ4QUPxJrOB7LYJaeSe7tTkCOPBY1_bhWCYu/s16000/01-2024-prediction.png" title="2024 總統大選預測" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【預測變動紀錄表】</span></h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR18hJdS2bnCJ4_2EsbvPXqQ1EqakdQ_QTmnT2uSNGPq1LlkVfGSSbOwRJ8Zv21tzZCtvgOK67aTsTJuiTyXD9KhT8QP5V92IxAJyEWwCVWmg9NrhnbMbYQz7EkuGm3k6MQkza4xcf9arLXbpLw1NTKa9Xxv2nZgC1FsxAnr0ANYoaeqza4Le_xm8NyPv1/s16000/02-change.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【得票預測趨勢圖】</span>未開始</h2></div><div><span style="color: #cc0000;"><br /></span></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【民意調查】</span></h2><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img alt="民意調查" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMeWRyGpnDFAyfdiBFa8aicYlfQns1hoO_lF4ZAJzSQ-ZFvngw8ZY8Nx4StsZvREKAF1LlUL0g-hED5nI_En9V2bLTeX5vziWnVhxxcGz1cWX0YQxfIgZft0ycP4cWJk3Yqnd49UsmyQyc0z-SFVx7f9rnOJbq_JnVjvw9uHQLCdFvoICnm6Voq9DruCkc/s16000/ho.png" title="民意調查" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span>註:</span><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E6%B0%91%E6%84%8F%E8%AA%BF%E6%9F%A5#%E8%B3%B4%E3%80%81%E4%BE%AF%E3%80%81%E6%9F%AF%E5%B0%8D%E6%B1%BA" target="_blank">按圖連結原始民調資料來源</a></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div><h2><span style="font-size: medium;">------------------</span></h2></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【後記】賴蕭對上柯侯預測</span></h2><div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: 400;"><div></div></div><div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: 400;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjETcF49kFUbbrFF8sErNeoFhkZ75YVqqatSFcvGhaFu0zM7q8q9mTLuBfchC3za4e1jKxiOTMKw_2EQS4HQ9XZg9tFdVNNR8VI39Uou4rQXfC-aXLjdpoAj6yA0v_R_rJRX-3LUS1TcN87_jV1Hwj91_RbGWARkZgEOCiAWm7SLQeKYHfBwJQO9omWc9ro/s16000/kp.png" /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: medium; font-weight: 400;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: medium; font-weight: 400;"><br /></div></h2><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">阿北誠信大崩壞 信用大破產 </span></h2><h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: medium;"><div style="font-weight: 400;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjYDAdTDAr45LpsVV3ko3j49mhkHPK27QvB3KhY3boBzsxIyl_aMQSEGSTr_ocXVMBnO1bOIci-VqMA5GOhlLtGWQl67QpYS9gb73Lz49IITO3RwsOkf6rBvnOcVEbaA_wes8bR-7PMS38NzkByNdb8CzjSBgWzyDnlLrZOoQOtgMwkBKx8LR0VEHABqqY/s16000/mobile01-579464c4c4c2ad39760d3cc58c2398f6.jpg" /></div><h2 style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;"><br /></span></h2><h2 style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">阿北沒睡飽 選擇一條走向泡沫的道路</span></h2></div><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl6plLa4_gWcdj51NBhMuBSoXM8YK9CLvCQGJ13x4F8WPxMa5FoerQ9Ckc_r3oKHAH1Two2VzriLW0sRqxtjcpYZ1DTPvZf7fPtwHAzsKeWXXZFPRTF1om3Ce7cQ2rRqGCiuS1t6bJh9YUP3qY-rIi52sXmZ23QZNrkZ2LnrBC9k1zMvuif8DS36XUDK9Z/s16000/%E6%88%B0%E7%8B%BC%E5%B0%8F%E5%A7%8A%E5%A7%8A%E4%B8%8D%E5%A6%82%E5%A3%81%E5%A6%82%E5%A4%A7%E5%A7%8A%E5%A7%8A.jpg" /></h2></div></div></div>無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-14699603252375270492023-11-20T14:35:00.091+08:002024-01-13T16:44:22.830+08:002024 總統登記前預測: 無情真實臉被打很腫 阿北睡飽 絕對後悔一輩子<h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">理性選擇!藍白一定合!</span></h2><div><div><span><span style="font-size: medium;"><div>賽局理論假設:人是理性的,總是會去做符合自己利益的事;而且他們會去思考他們的對手想要什麼、對於我方的策略對方會如何反應。人是理性的,但並非本善,任何事都可以商量,沒有人會選擇一條走向泡沫的道路,還背負毀諾之名。運用賽局理論看藍白合發展(The game of chicken), 看不出破局的道理,侯柯配一定成局!</div><div><br /></div></span></span><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">抽樣誤差凹成讓6% 阿北誠信大崩壞</span></h2><span style="font-size: medium;">統計上講的抽樣誤差是在一個範圍之內,不是讓幾%的問題,柯媽不懂,柯P應該不會不懂。</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span>誠信視為人的第二生命,科學民調顯示:</span><span>柯候、候柯,無顯著差異的民調占絕對多數,竟然可以凹成讓6%。</span></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span>無顯著差異 = 當選機會均等,科學的說法就是平手。計算原始平均民調</span>柯43.3%、侯42.7%,差距0.6%。</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">百分化民調平均值與標準化後得票預測都是:柯55%、侯54%(請參考文末民調與得票預測)。</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img alt="阿北好好睡個覺!戰狼小姊姊,不如壁如大姊姊。" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl6plLa4_gWcdj51NBhMuBSoXM8YK9CLvCQGJ13x4F8WPxMa5FoerQ9Ckc_r3oKHAH1Two2VzriLW0sRqxtjcpYZ1DTPvZf7fPtwHAzsKeWXXZFPRTF1om3Ce7cQ2rRqGCiuS1t6bJh9YUP3qY-rIi52sXmZ23QZNrkZ2LnrBC9k1zMvuif8DS36XUDK9Z/s16000/%E6%88%B0%E7%8B%BC%E5%B0%8F%E5%A7%8A%E5%A7%8A%E4%B8%8D%E5%A6%82%E5%A3%81%E5%A6%82%E5%A4%A7%E5%A7%8A%E5%A7%8A.jpg" title="阿北好好睡個覺!戰狼小姊姊,不如壁如大姊姊。" /></div></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2024 總統大選預測】</span>四三三局 趨勢不變 政黨輪替 藍白合解</h2><div><span style="font-size: medium;">2024年中華民國總統副總統選舉(第8次直選),預計於2024年1月13日舉行,與第11屆立法委員選舉共同構成「2024年中華民國中央公職人員選舉」,將採用普通、直接、平等、無記名、單記、相對多數投票制度。當選人將於2024年5月20日宣誓就職。第14、15任總統蔡英文將於2024年5月20日任期屆滿,因已連任一次,所以此次無法再度競選。</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg03dNLzWiYdBMStEhDR3WXxiQ8UGv2eWE2PeaLId9ENWr0HqW8BuGSAyaMBLVT0ZYWIf8chUYHwxHfMA3oA6fm1QgRMhT97TGtvmktkQD3v74CHj8Hhzu_bLS8iYOAA-nvjLhSyYMdGM2xUIDg_d4pK908V5eUGKNuVy-z3PCwfUt-pyBataHyemcTrsIw/s16000/01-2024-prediction.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b style="font-size: large;">註:<span>賴蕭對上侯柯、柯侯預測資料請參考文末民調資料</span></b></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【預測變動紀錄表】</span></h2></div><div><img border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpresidential-winner%2F02-change.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><img alt="2024 總統候選人 得票率預測 趨勢圖" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpresidential-winner%2F02-polls_Linear_regression.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024 總統候選人 得票率預測 趨勢圖" /></div></div><div><br /><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【民意調查】</span></h2><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img alt="民意調查" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpresidential-winner%2F03-polls.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="民意調查" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span>註:</span><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E6%B0%91%E6%84%8F%E8%AA%BF%E6%9F%A5#%E8%B3%B4%E3%80%81%E4%BE%AF%E3%80%81%E6%9F%AF%E5%B0%8D%E6%B1%BA" target="_blank">按圖連結原始民調資料來源</a></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">----------</div><div><br /></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【附件一】得票</span><span style="color: #cc0000;">預測、趨勢觀察與機構效應調整</span></h2><div><span style="color: #cc0000;"><h2 style="color: black;"><img alt="2024 總統選舉 得票預測" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpresidential-winner%2F04-polls-prediction.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024 總統選舉 得票預測" /></h2><div><br /></div></span></div><div><span><h2 style="color: black;"><img alt="2024 總統選舉 TVBS 民意調查" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpresidential-winner%2F04-TVBS.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024 總統選舉 TVBS 民意調查" /></h2><div style="color: #cc0000;"><br /></div><div><h2><img alt="2024 總統選舉 美麗島民意調查" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpresidential-winner%2F04-formosa.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024 總統選舉 美麗島民意調查" /></h2></div><div style="color: #cc0000;"><br /></div></span></div><div><h2><img alt="2024 總統選舉 台灣民意基金會 民意調查" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpresidential-winner%2F04-fsr.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024 總統選舉 台灣民意基金會 民意調查" /></h2></div><div><h2><br /></h2><h2><img alt="2024 總統選舉 ETtoday民意調查" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpresidential-winner%2FETtoday.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024 總統選舉 ETtoday民意調查" /></h2></div><div><br /></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【附件二】機構效應之歷史資料</span></h2></div><h2><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2020/01/2020-poll-error-statistics.html">2020 總統大選:選舉結果與選前民調誤差統計</a>(按圖詳細資料)</h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2020/01/2020-poll-error-statistics.html"><img alt="2020 總統大選:選舉結果與選前民調誤差統" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5Y4SYK6ROL13QLi7RElOgs1i39El--V08RXNmYToPGYAPX32zF149iPCZ0Kq6fuYgxhjws0Sdmiuk0viP0mKYXa303U-B83UwpU04Oo7JAVH89W-y2waWIBpX1Qf9KdS5Ds0boTloD6pSYpTJCQmC83snScquROYEqeBNoIGUikEISlYmi4lWxyMTbg/s16000/polls_2020-1.png" title="2020 總統大選:選舉結果與選前民調誤差統" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">2016 總統大選民調 誤差統計</span></h2></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2016/01/2016-presidential-election-5.html"><img alt="2016 總統大選民調 誤差統計" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO2vSEchjTQL1D4HjopJbMk-G_2NiPWKp13NLCRuooeQ8p3R_pqFa5j5TzTpv0Ybzi3Nydm7JlJdaFMHCF0mmfhR1A4R1KQyukARVmr9AYRmJOxY0e7L1pS_LIYQp6F2AgYYS3RZZXoTeZVed-GXB1FCUFbwcEqt4UyutwHDGR8ln8HKjS26B7WAHBzw/s16000/polls_2016.png" title="2016 總統大選民調 誤差統計" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【相關預測】</span></h2><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">2024 總統大選預測:</span><span style="color: #444444;">正式板</span></h2><div><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2023/11/2024-Taiwanese-presidential-election.html" style="background: rgb(243, 243, 243); color: #f37d21; font-size: 15px; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;"><img alt="2024 總統大選預測" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpresident-2024%2F01-2024-prediction.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" style="border: 0px; height: inherit; max-width: 100%;" title="2024 總統大選預測" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>--------------------</div></div><div><div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【後記】賴蕭對上侯柯、柯侯預測</span></h2></div></div></div></div></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMeWRyGpnDFAyfdiBFa8aicYlfQns1hoO_lF4ZAJzSQ-ZFvngw8ZY8Nx4StsZvREKAF1LlUL0g-hED5nI_En9V2bLTeX5vziWnVhxxcGz1cWX0YQxfIgZft0ycP4cWJk3Yqnd49UsmyQyc0z-SFVx7f9rnOJbq_JnVjvw9uHQLCdFvoICnm6Voq9DruCkc/s16000/ho.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjETcF49kFUbbrFF8sErNeoFhkZ75YVqqatSFcvGhaFu0zM7q8q9mTLuBfchC3za4e1jKxiOTMKw_2EQS4HQ9XZg9tFdVNNR8VI39Uou4rQXfC-aXLjdpoAj6yA0v_R_rJRX-3LUS1TcN87_jV1Hwj91_RbGWARkZgEOCiAWm7SLQeKYHfBwJQO9omWc9ro/s16000/kp.png" /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">阿北誠信大崩壞</span></h2><div><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjYDAdTDAr45LpsVV3ko3j49mhkHPK27QvB3KhY3boBzsxIyl_aMQSEGSTr_ocXVMBnO1bOIci-VqMA5GOhlLtGWQl67QpYS9gb73Lz49IITO3RwsOkf6rBvnOcVEbaA_wes8bR-7PMS38NzkByNdb8CzjSBgWzyDnlLrZOoQOtgMwkBKx8LR0VEHABqqY/s16000/mobile01-579464c4c4c2ad39760d3cc58c2398f6.jpg" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiygf_5WKfXdhjEWR_DraWTTyQg3uJKnC2UaQHgoLis0Qf17bTwalhiRWcHxWl0_dMRyDJ7fvSSRNfdA3A5MUX-iqUGPAPbzropjsiW6W4KxbfPmJYGm5dZjo_WH4fOu349Br74rjuaxh7qOVcKhmpRSCGREqg2nyN06MCsoI3J_q77a9nIDTFCfGcq0j3V/s16000/170078424296379_P27514290.jpg" /></div>圖片來源:<a href="https://www.mobile01.com/topicdetail.php?f=638&t=6874523">聯合報</a></div>無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com19tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-88316543439492464452023-05-15T23:00:00.065+08:002024-01-02T15:49:49.185+08:002024 總統參選人預測:第20集 台灣的關鍵力量
<div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNJ5ysq_MGp0D5Iqx4yfaqSaI_5t9hZeTklAdP4Yd5rRiKcagDrT9eXIoZa-bhoWkVFnvDiU543LwVQcE2pSFXSPuwCYAsq4AqO9FhCsHl2MKGZ95ka6twmNNtN-wpZeLvzSY-QRFcK_yy8CmH-yL_Jd3_Y0pdwGPs3c8Aj3wvujE_8MPsl-hDzpIuBA/s16000/2024-prediction.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【預測形勢圖】</span></h2></div></div></div><div><img alt="2024 總統參選人預測形勢圖" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpresident%2F01-situation.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2024 總統參選人預測形勢圖" /></div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【可能總統參選人-預測變動表】</span></h2><div>2024年中華民國總統副總統選舉(第8次直選),預計於2024年1月13日舉行,與第11屆立法委員選舉共同構成「2024年中華民國中央公職人員選舉」,將採用普通、直接、平等、無記名、單記、相對多數投票制度。當選人將於2024年5月20日宣誓就職。第14、15任總統蔡英文將於2024年5月20日任期屆滿,因已連任一次,所以此次無法再度競選。<div><img alt="參選人-預測變動表" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpresident%2F02-change.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="參選人-預測變動表" /></div></div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【民意調查】</span></h2><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b>賴、郭、柯對決</b></span></div><div><div><img alt="民意調查交叉分析中間選民" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpresident%2F03-polls.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="民意調查交叉分析中間選民" /></div><div><b style="font-size: x-large;"><br /></b></div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">賴、侯、柯對決</span></b></div><img border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2024%2Fpresident%2F03-polls-ho.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" /><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【政黨初選】</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span>一、民進黨總統提名選舉:<span style="color: #38761d;">4/12</span> <span style="color: #38761d;">賴清德同額競選勝出</span></span></h2><div><span style="font-size: medium;">本屆初選為繼2000、2004及2016年民進黨總統提名選舉以來,第四度出現總統候選人初選同額競選的狀況。</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">民進黨中執委將於4月12日正式公告提名賴清德代表民進黨參與本屆總統選舉。<br /></span><span><div><br /></div><div><h2><span>二、國民黨總統提名選舉:<span style="color: #073763;">5/17中常會決定徵召新北市長侯友宜</span></span></h2></div></span><span style="font-size: medium;">2023年3月22日,國民黨中常會無異議通過由黨主席朱立倫以「徵召」形式產生該黨總統候選人之決議。</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span><div><h2><span>三、民眾黨總統提名選舉:<span style="color: #45818e;">柯文哲</span></span><span style="color: #45818e;">公開宣示參選,預計5/20正式宣布參選</span></h2></div></span><span style="font-size: medium;">2020年9月17日,柯文哲在臺北市議會接受議員李柏毅質詢時脫口:「我不是想,是直接準備!」等同公開宣示將角逐本屆總統選舉。2023年4月8日,柯文哲將以民眾黨總統參選人身分訪問美國。</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2020年中華民國總統選舉結果】</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><img alt="2020年中華民國總統選舉結果" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrsoXdL74C7eX-nX-_0joVeUGzeTya6aS4ZgKgys4yEca_7ayflZBDFbGLwEQNc1I1StAoSJrqtWDRRDDuwuFEEUq3Gupx9CBU2ZYJnrLYMexdLpozpqeJNjLhIpswE0CBPYtULWcI-V9L/s16000/2020-7.gif" title="2020年中華民國總統選舉結果" /></h2><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>------------------------------</div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【歷史回顧】</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;">1、<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2019/03/2020-dpp-presidential-candidate.html">2019民進黨總統提名預測</a>(按圖連結預測資料)</h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2019/03/2020-dpp-presidential-candidate.html"><img alt="2019民進黨總統提名預測" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgj1yjYlbnRs_BB8-r2RMUwrByjP_BunAe1Vl_wbQfagueBE3lyFyAOlJg3LcMEUDAF33j6UDZm1sxa4ASkrYOH3rayjm9C-8k991vo_t8JrtzB2eS-bKozQxbkC5Xou8BL5CRS-kZutyMe/s16000/02-candidate.gif" title="2019民進黨總統提名預測" /></a></h2><div><br /></div><div><h2 style="text-align: left;">2、<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2019/03/2020-kmt-presidential-candidate.html">2019 國民黨總統提名預測</a>(按圖連結預測資料)</h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2019/03/2020-kmt-presidential-candidate.html"><img alt="2019 國民黨總統提名預測" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7BCw-qvRS1VYF773JmFJYXzJRwr9tqDBjopJqjjYkw9MXs7EzyL1_1DBplexczSXDHoQV7_lhzYadiF5iorghHnQkIYXSX5fWW-h__W27v4KA5qa1DkRheILrJd8FupFIxyBsEy1yj7IQ/s16000/2019-07-11_111209.gif" title="2019 國民黨總統提名預測" /></a></h2><div><br /></div><div>--------------------------</div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【後記】</span>賴清德的天花板 VS 勝率低的藍腦路線 VS 轉型能否成功</h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5Q4w6yQYg0fR69uX0sk1K_0rCU1K3OuRnmfG0tTLtftzxpoS8m5vW7Clw_h60Gi5nwFeI8GGma21E1rtyxi85pMFFQGzJDv5cgm2X_NYm2O6FV4V1EN-CKLhcFCsE7EBuGA-5oybKCmYUSnNjU8pSJ12J7v8OkhwdfJgjJgY8mW6fsqSqs-N_rJpIeA/s16000/board-1.png" /></div></div></div></div><div><span><span><span></span></span></span></div>無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com28tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-17430347422775039962023-04-25T17:46:00.000+08:002023-04-25T17:46:09.027+08:002023 總統蔡英文滿意度追蹤:本月民眾對總統滿意度明顯分歧<h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【總統滿意度民調趨勢圖】</span>TVBS+美麗島+台灣民意基金會</h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgu_ckDgbbiv3HWNfYlmnF78XXNmTAdwuH1QSHFl6P97f2ZIJL6jqC1gjB-cSIfzmD9KSfktgk9TjwNqEXmQnrvveV923_c6BKN3qT_sHbTVHJycQGq6luPE1EvNCEBy_ak1r1A5CRK66oFnVhjhxiQiRVxU_QYBrSHGpJLaRhJPinyQjG-obj2q3KTHA/s16000/2president-trend.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【最新總統與閣揆施政滿意度民意調查】</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><img alt="最新總統與閣揆施政滿意度民意調查" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https:/
%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FApproval%2Fpresident-2020%2F1newpoll.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="最新總統與閣揆施政滿意度民意調查" /></h2><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【TVBS民調】</span><img alt="TVBS民調" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https:/
%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FApproval%2Fpresident-2020%2F3TVBS.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="TVBS民調" /></h2><div>資料來源與詳細交叉分析:<a href="https://www.tvbs.com.tw/poll-center" target="_blank">TVBS民調中心</a></div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【美麗島民調】</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><img alt="美麗島民調" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https:/
%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FApproval%2Fpresident-2020%2F4formosa.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="美麗島民調" /></h2><div>資料來源與詳細交叉分析:<a href="http://www.my-formosa.com/" target="_blank">美麗島民調</a></div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【台灣民意基金會】</span></h2><div><span style="font-size: large;">
<img alt="山水民調" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https:/
%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FApproval%2Fpresident-2020%2F5tpof.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="山水民調" /></span></div><div>資料來源與詳細交叉分析:<a href="https://www.tpof.org/" target="_blank">台灣民意基金會</a></div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【歷史民調資料】</span>2020/02~2022/12</h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><img alt="歷史民調資料" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgzQm8o9HOlTuo68U6paRBLo6M1aSdAnFw0auMmGAqeQ6MCu4FueRlDGmXLVMz9oFP0Yk4XeW3zmcKnp7TtxD5xa72jojLlHpJCoSwVjlJr_RLKbkQSWRI9tKJ9Qqv02_E2vwI0-S3qpVB/s16000/Polls-2020.png" title="歷史民調資料" /></h2><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj3biSAvNg8SUZdlesThfgYwRfAdXMp-KNQs49SRC_9xC_8WesKd_LHMqVN51YLNLpl2n_sy8-PxzC1hQ4uHbZ6Sc9KDkP88T7NvFeorNzU0IkfPKJtRHr7_QrVPfFlhWdS62SUXUNi9ReLqPoWa5N8LfPToIcC403u4JDAGFZjyvq9eFMRt0xw_x-RJA=s16000" /><br /><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHDfGgv88D1AxgkEeCnJ7r_4DSkJH_nilNkvFz8XubdwM6Wig8LOcSB9eOu7XA9Gr8zC33VjOzYYhusstQaZ2vOVA3u2lfL5KGHISu71FeUKkr4bot9JTL6coZC_yWnYjZsTvyxJ1JWAYRvA_wDXHxGqZJOHfF6hE5SVCflPP-auBlQTMJKeOkYlC0ew/s16000/Polls-2022.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>------------------------------------</div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【歷史回顧】人們不會滿意『平等地分享痛苦』</span></h2><div><b><span style="color: #444444; font-size: large;">1、<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2019/01/2019-satisfaction-governance.html">2019總統施政滿意度追蹤網頁</a></span></b></div><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2019/01/2019-satisfaction-governance.html"><img alt="2019總統施政滿意度追蹤網頁" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/proxy/AVvXsEhrgAL_DoLLknEt1TYSTRxmZfUkC-bcce09hdumwR8nAyJTE0ti4hGJj9M5bT5d7-ed9CqxzxXumIg4328Fwbt0bc8EYnr1Kch2cItudN57yWMkUkTHTyVVEixNbgzSOJ8_ymiv4llJymoyoE3DDQOiVoZ9b4Yg9xUl-MQ-ntjPE68=s16000" title="2019總統施政滿意度追蹤網頁" /></a><br /><div><div><b><span style="color: #444444; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b></div><div><span style="color: #444444; font-size: large;"><b><span>2、<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/search/label/%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E6%BB%BF%E6%84%8F%E5%BA%A6">2016~2020</a></span></b><b><span><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/search/label/%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E6%BB%BF%E6%84%8F%E5%BA%A6">總統施政滿意度彙整網頁</a></span></b></span></div><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/search/label/%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E6%BB%BF%E6%84%8F%E5%BA%A6"><img alt="2016~2020總統施政滿意度彙整網頁" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcwRk46N8BHsdl1uprj6vuAnj-sZoGGgNpyIFC8qptfotMM4D0raU4Sl1C9gMNtUIfi0j1i1fYiZ66pp0TREa-v_YK3a5qZ9CCqqYXXZ4nQNkaxCZiTa-nLSM3VZSZ1jaSpviU5uivLprf/s16000/2016+%25E6%2596%25B0%25E4%25BB%25BB%25E7%25B8%25BD%25E7%25B5%25B1++%25E8%2594%25A1%25E8%258B%25B1%25E6%2596%2587%25E6%2596%25BD%25E6%2594%25BF%25E6%25BB%25BF%25E6%2584%258F%25E5%25BA%25A6+%25E5%258A%25A0%25E6%25AC%258A%25E8%25B6%25A8%25E5%258B%25A2%25E5%259C%2596.gif" title="2016~2020總統施政滿意度彙整網頁" /></a><div><span></span></div></div>
無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-16380574316628862232023-03-21T20:18:00.001+08:002023-03-23T07:05:29.146+08:002023 WBC世界棒球經典賽預測:2023年第五屆世界棒球經典賽(WBC),當今世界規模第二大的國際棒球賽事,本屆由16隊擴張至20個國家隊參賽。比賽原定於2021年舉行,由於疫情影響賽事暫延至2023年舉行。 上屆2017年比賽的16 支國家隊將自動獲得參賽資格;剩下的4隊由 2020年3月在美國亞利桑那州舉行的資格賽確定最後4支球隊。<div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2023 WBC世界棒球經典賽 晉級形勢圖】</span></h2></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhybWqLM7SfR_6PdFRko_JjX9_b3J55UGXxgU2Dbq1dWNFuycF7S2K1VTf7FDehgjhL84zJ8iB9Gb7hS0nVuR6P3E33IWnw90vgkh_IUATxDLozi16r3GIdwiNVg3y8SZgsQ1GcJUYGqp-5fH6MlU8JGZ3itTvW2fyMz9SH-aX9Q_4S2GVbXh_s9S5ANA/s16000/1-Situation-map.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div></div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【綜合評比】</span>隨最新賽果更新</h2></div><img alt="2023WBC世界棒球經典賽戰力評比" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FSports%2FWBC%2F2023%2F4-power.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2023WBC世界棒球經典賽戰力評比" /><div><br /></div><div><h2><span style="color: #073763;">A組賽事</span></h2></div><div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">2023年世界棒球經典賽A組於2023年3月8日至3月12日,在台灣臺中市臺中洲際棒球場舉行的賽事。比賽採取循環賽制,每隊將會遭遇其他四隊,小組前兩名取得晉級下一輪的資格。而若比賽進行至五局領先達十五分,或七局達十分,即提前結束比賽。</span></div></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b>戰績相同之分組排名順序:</b></span></div><div style="font-size: large;">1、勝負關係決定排名。</div><div style="font-size: large;">2、<span style="color: #cc0000;">失分率決定排名。(總失分÷對手總出局打數 out recorded)</span></div><div style="font-size: large;">3、自責失分率決定排名。</div><div style="font-size: large;">4、團隊打擊率決定排名。</div><div style="font-size: large;">5、抽籤決定。</div></span></div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【分組戰績表】</span></h2></div><img alt="2023WBC世界棒球經典賽-分組戰績" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FSports%2FWBC%2F2023%2F5-Group-A_D.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="2023WBC世界棒球經典賽-分組戰績" /><div><br /></div><div>-------------------</div><div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【歷史回顧】</span></h2></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #073763;"><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2013/03/wbc.html">2013年WBC世界棒球經典賽冠軍預測:</a></span></h2><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2013/03/wbc.html"><img alt="2013年WBC世界棒球經典賽冠軍預測" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgOYzD8qEQ_y0494Ip3CiBr4vtbMeJOjIjDggkxBK8VKS2PGZX2Q3L3CuZEDLj-v_VZOAdrF30lubwD8x77zFBA3KrJkM2hYoM9NenLU7JrQdUhNBl3AxSd1c15tDz7j5iB3BTDIn_-dmmPaqvMptp9cl2_QeAuWLjkcMQIxqIXvezX-KY8cCjgJPx_g/s16000/2013%E7%B6%93%E5%85%B8%E8%B3%BD-%E4%B8%AD%E6%BE%B3%E4%B9%8B%E6%88%B0.png" title="2013年WBC世界棒球經典賽冠軍預測" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">圖片來源:聯合報-2013/03/02 中澳大戰-黃士航攝</div></div></div>無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-3606649588887054032023-02-20T20:18:00.002+08:002023-03-04T18:37:30.797+08:002023 南投縣第二選區立委補選預測:五五波 勝率均等第十屆立法委員南投縣第二選舉區(包含南投市、名間鄉、集集鎮、竹山鎮、鹿谷鄉、水里鄉、信義鄉)缺額補選,原任立法委員許淑華因於第19屆南投縣縣長選舉當選而須依法辭去立法委員後所進行的選舉。此選舉將於2023年3月4日舉行。<div><br /><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span><span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>【2023 南投縣第二選舉區 立委補選】</b></span></span></h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibzldjytUEXJ5QX_7Ot_qGlNxNIM6ZWp-dUKFWQyJcZF0JP-2oJ5NGczDtBBEqMXrU_s3QlO_ksZjpsUGb74fjZD81krcZ4RcDxeJjAqxBLoE_bApB6SF-xsQHcgEXn22Un383-X5XEN5Wivmu2gVbuJzOYbc27rxWiDls-qKskNpZ-UrNovvp5py1tA/s16000/01-prediction.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;"><span>【預測變動紀錄表】</span></span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><img alt="預測變動紀錄表" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2023%2Fnantou-2%2F02-change.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="預測變動紀錄表" /></h2><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【</span><span style="color: #cc0000;">南投縣第二選舉區 投票指數</span><span style="color: #cc0000;">】</span></h2><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">1、關與投票指數請參考:<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2022/12/2022-2024-taiwan-voters-structure.html" target="_blank">最新區域立法委員選區選民結構分布推估網頁</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><h2><img alt="預測變動紀錄表" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2023%2Fnantou-2%2Fvoting-index.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="預測變動紀錄表" /></h2><div><br /></div></div></div><div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span><span style="color: #cc0000;">【得票率預測與勝率換算】</span></span></h2><div><span>說明:得票率預測經百分化互比</span><span>後</span><span>換算勝選機率,不含其他候選人。</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #cc0000;"><img alt="得票率預測與勝率對照圖" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2023%2Fnantou-2%2F04-Polls-Chance.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" style="color: black; font-size: medium;" title="得票率預測與勝率對照圖" /></span></span></div><div><br /></div><div><div><h2 style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span><span style="color: #cc0000;"><span>【</span></span><span style="color: #cc0000;">明日投票的</span><span><span style="color: #cc0000;">勝選機率與當選機會】</span><span style="color: #444444;">類似『明天下雨的機率』</span></span></span></h2><h2 style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><img alt="勝選機率與當選機會" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2023%2Fnantou-2%2F03-Win-rate.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="勝選機率與當選機會" /></h2></div><div><div><br /></div></div></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【Google trends 搜尋趨勢】</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><img alt="Google trends 搜尋趨勢" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2023%2Fnantou-2%2Fgoogle-trends-1.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="Google trends 搜尋趨勢" /></h2><div><br /></div></div><div><br /></div><img alt="Google trends 搜尋趨勢" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2F2023%2Fnantou-2%2Fgoogle-trends-2.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="Google trends 搜尋趨勢" /><br /><div><br /></div><div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2020 </span></span><span><span style="color: #cc0000;">南投縣第二選舉區立委選舉結果】</span></span></h2><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUPCW3rTf3RSe9T5jk8WqH0gbL3PjC5FMvRCGuB_YvazjNJHBQzu0KGe5eIUXe90xNCtORWhdFErHZ81vh9MMuCyFEuIo1YdGAYZq7ZUTUoXhF3yizvU9Evq7umnFkksEI_h4QwNdanm81IzpEP6bGFOkb513BTULf2zfYJk-p_aUXFi6TzbS3RjLNuw/s16000/Vote.png" /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div><div>-----------------</div>
<h2 style="text-align: left;"><span><span style="color: #cc0000;">【選舉結果】</span></span></h2></div></div></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiExA6CMsxxooUbla9O2wLljRmpOTvrOTZI2xd1Bs-OnLG3ga6EBDQ7m48KUR3jPV1WyU0idamcCVn9N0iVbKsoUViyO8V7c4TGJJXPHFnnXkY8B8rIz8bKBwmZIqs4H9ikDzxk7Iki_bCsa3wxfSJI04GPtN4vwo1ZFpbu6yB5HoD-CM4ZZf4YM0eSiA/s16000/Vote-2023.png" /></div></div>
</div>無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-56174208985641203862023-02-12T13:19:00.001+08:002023-02-13T12:57:41.522+08:002023 NFL 國家美式足球聯盟:第57屆超級盃預測<span style="font-size: medium;">第57屆超級盃(Super Bowl LVII)定於2023年2月12日在美國亞利桑那州格蘭岱爾的州立農業體育館舉行,AFC冠軍堪薩斯城酋長將和NFC冠軍費城老鷹進行對決,決出2022年NFL賽季冠軍。</span><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【超級盃對戰預測】</span></h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img alt="第57屆超級盃預測" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVZc-EtRLmGtGjdQE5FydrTzibmprLMVq_eiyNp1YHoBse3gPvs1qoOFJAUaE6dgvw1cKEz6SbDyRU4ogY4YNBfUvIFNOqTPI145zFrIHZbd8s9ASRoZJ1WwzM8xKXjknw0wb1WpuieiT39HciKT0iW6ytQZxp04hNoHO0wsNYxMHc2RL7O9g-B0IAkA/s16000/1-prediction.png" title="第57屆超級盃預測" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【對戰球隊簡介】</span></h2><h2><div style="text-align: left;"></div><div><div><span style="color: #0b5394; font-size: large;">堪薩斯城酋長:主力四分衛 P. Mahomes</span></div><span style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">堪薩斯城酋長以14勝3負的戰績完成常規賽,取得了季後賽美聯頭號種子。堪薩斯城酋長在季後賽中先後以27-20戰勝傑克遜維爾美洲虎、23-20戰勝辛辛那提猛虎,晉級超級盃。這是酋長隊在最近四年內第三次殺入超級盃。在該賽季全隊共有7名球員入選職業盃。</span><div style="font-size: medium;"><br /></div><div><span style="color: #0b5394; font-size: large;">費城老鷹:主力四分衛 J. Hurts</span></div><span style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">費城老鷹以14勝3負的戰績完成常規賽,取得了季後賽國聯頭號種子。費城老鷹在季後賽中先後以38-7戰勝紐約巨人、31-7戰勝舊金山49人,晉級超級盃。在該賽季全隊共有8名球員入選職業盃,為所有球隊最多。</span></div><div style="font-size: medium;"><br /></div><div style="font-size: medium;"></div></h2><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【例行賽戰力評比】<br /></span><img alt="例行賽戰力評比" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVqT5Osgf4W5n2w5pTgGdQzZkJ3kQeYkXQdPLM_LcE5NrTzDXw_ZrZgSJfYZhCtuxU5cRxOjLCn7syfJtTzVa5ifXSpQyrHxvH-A_A_f4vymdcfz5zLc4f4Mi_WuXxhoSrw9GPnPe6Jxu2uzxs6Of5Eo3YQ_R0exzl7cPgA44NTAeOx4PILkNFLwMFIA/s16000/power1.png" title="例行賽戰力評比" /></h2><div><br /></div><h2><span style="color: #cc0000;">【賽前與中場表演】</span></h2><span style="font-size: medium;">2023年1月24日,美國鄉村音樂歌手克里斯·特普爾頓被選為國歌演唱者。賽前表演還包括雪莉·李·拉爾夫演唱《眾生揚聲歌頌》、娃娃臉演唱《美麗的阿美利加》,這三首歌曲都被現場翻譯為美國手語。<br /><br />2022年9月,NFL選定Apple Music作為中場表演(Halftime Show)的新贊助商,取代了過去連續10個賽季的贊助商百事可樂。同月,歌手蕾哈娜宣布將參加本屆超級盃的中場表演,她之前曾於2018年和2019年兩度拒絕超級盃中場表演,以聲援科林·卡佩尼克。</span><h2><span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #cc0000; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">-------預測回顧</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2020/01/nfl.html">2020 第54屆超級盃預測</a>:</div></span></h2><h2><span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div></div><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2020/01/nfl.html"><img alt="2019-20 NFL第54屆超級盃預測" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtPVg1hWyrldeXdBobWOpl2GbkxZd0dKgQPeLCz_ZxgKxr8GAnqDAO9i43OwvnW3IzLOmXSgDPN_bP9-5oaJppEx0f1k3LEt7aa4oR5Gk1QEOsejzzyVvlkz7bH38DKnncTnGcKD9wc_3R/s16000/1-prediction.gif" title="2019-20 NFL第54屆超級盃預測" /></a><div><br /></div></div></span><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2020/09/NFL.html">2020 NFL 常規賽預測</a>:</h2><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2020/09/NFL.html"><img alt="2020 NFL 國家美式足球常規賽預測" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/proxy/AVvXsEiQCMq1nrYD3NN7Hr6pqMPyMgo3kNH34qXs3q5adVQER8MxUbVB-8zj4eaj_vlyboyIC6hQFg_eXCfGulb3Y0klrNsL-vHE2nFXgZr9rHdYMoQiKYPwME8PVVmb5SdBDaDjEb0gJ-qaFfbD0E22-ctcLDE6yg=s16000" title="2020 NFL 國家美式足球常規賽預測" /></a>無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3184425866771871389.post-30203674134335570682023-01-15T20:39:00.011+08:002023-05-06T15:10:56.515+08:002023 民進黨主席補選預測:團結力量大 背叛賺更多<div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">德英第二回合的囚犯困境賽局</span>:團結力量大 不合作(背叛)賺更多</h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span><span style="font-size: large;">孤傲獨行易 笑傲江湖難 團結力量大 背叛賺更多 </span></span><span><span style="font-size: large;">老娘還沒死 管你選不選 超級總統制 民主之亂源</span></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></b></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZZYPWUmbqyra3fD3S_GMXpT5JFO8K6shJmWqNeTIv1_ZA2EmdYaNhMfFUmV1xppA9ml-BaVbQ_yVUo65r6lIcoRu4x7nbylWO98yTS6IKk9dykRYq7LoE9Hs0_tGjvtPKy7smW3nfLlqRhsRxc3i6rl9mfL6Uug8mdK9tMhDc31aKEkiwkEAGD2xslw/s16000/Gong%20Lai.png" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><span><span><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; font-size: 15px;">原始圖片來源:</span></span></span></span><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; font-size: 15px;">電影-</span><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%A3%9B%E8%B6%8A%E7%98%8B%E4%BA%BA%E9%99%A2" style="background: rgb(243, 243, 243); color: #0b5394; font-size: 15px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">飛越杜鵑窩</a><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; font-size: 15px;"> </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【歷史回顧】</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">2019 民進黨的分裂危機 德英的囚犯困境賽局</span></h2></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">策略:囚犯困境賽局最佳策略『<span style="color: #cc0000;">以牙還牙</span>』</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">結果→小英技術性擊倒阿德,挽救民進黨分裂危機,2020高票贏得連任,阿德任副手,送進冷凍庫。</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; font-size: large;"><b><span><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2019/03/2020-dpp-presidential-candidate.html">連結→</a></span></b><b><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2019/03/2020-dpp-presidential-candidate.html">德英第一回合的囚犯困境賽局</a></b></span><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; font-size: large;"><b><span>:</span></b></span><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: large; font-weight: bold;">團結力量大,背叛賺更多</span></span></span><span><span><span style="color: #444444;">(註:</span></span></span><span style="color: #444444;"><a href="https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/%E5%9B%9A%E5%BE%92%E5%9B%B0%E5%A2%83" target="_blank">囚犯困境</a>)</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></div><h2 style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;"><span>有趣的羅素悖論:</span><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span>賴神刮蔡政府的鬍子,他的鬍子誰刮?</span></span></span></h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #444444;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="background-color: #f3f3f3; border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 0px; color: black; float: left; font-size: 15px; margin-right: 1em;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6H7o-nnye0sTXbUdWUXXENxD5u_DERPw6iqdORQnt7jW-NOt3lFhZj7dSbIQoP4WcCqjbs15WvhUby2VMc9_WKWecQQGySDx5s20vaSiUC7d1KJwjGMZWoDjcqkmZi0CtqFm9yyvmnAbu/s1600/2019-03-22_102133.gif" style="background: transparent; clear: left; color: #f37d21; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="150" data-original-width="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6H7o-nnye0sTXbUdWUXXENxD5u_DERPw6iqdORQnt7jW-NOt3lFhZj7dSbIQoP4WcCqjbs15WvhUby2VMc9_WKWecQQGySDx5s20vaSiUC7d1KJwjGMZWoDjcqkmZi0CtqFm9yyvmnAbu/s1600/2019-03-22_102133.gif" style="border: 0px; height: inherit; max-width: 100%;" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>賴神的鬍子誰刮</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: black;"><span style="font-size: medium;">某村有一個理髮師宣布,他給所有不給自己刮鬍子的人刮鬍子,並且只給村裡這樣的人刮鬍子,那現在有一個問題,理髮師要不要給他自己刮鬍子呢?如果他給自己刮鬍子,那就不符合他的原則了,因為他給所有不給自己刮鬍子的人刮鬍子,所以他不應該給他自己刮鬍子。但是如果他不給自己刮鬍子呢,那麼按照原則,他就可以給自己刮鬍子。</span>(關於:</span><a href="https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%90%86%E5%8F%91%E5%B8%88%E6%82%96%E8%AE%BA" style="background: rgb(243, 243, 243); color: #0b5394; text-decoration-line: none;">理髮師悖論</a><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: black;">)</span><br style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: black; font-size: 15px;" /><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: medium;">(註:賴清德 2017/9/8~2019/1/14 擔任行政院長)</span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></span></div></div></div></div></div><div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【2023 民進黨主席補選預測】</span></h2><div>2022年中華民國地方公職人員選舉中,民進黨慘敗,時任黨主席的蔡英文總統在選舉後宣布辭去黨主席職務,並在2023年1月進行黨主席補選,補選隔年將舉行2024年中華民國總統與立委選舉。(<span style="color: #cc0000;">註:新任黨魁手握2024總統與立委提名權</span>)</div><div><img border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FPolitical%2FDPP%2F2023%2F02-candidate.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" /></div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;">選舉結果</h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><img alt="民主進步黨第17屆黨主席補選選舉結果" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixt0a8K1ptyWS51yU-Ln6n_2neHMpBFaDlN5g43BPIjpMWDjJLHljSDhUbLTjc_Cj79nCcD6M9N0ypm9SNQ9s6GqjcJF_8O2k_QWDWr49KOnFk1JibBGNFGEFp1cIXL0pg9f97-U5y19aujLl9jemUwM-k7qUO5OqP_NiYkHlkuTbkfO9gImLGEV9qsg/s16000/2023%E9%BB%A8%E4%B8%BB%E5%B8%AD%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E6%8A%95%E7%A5%A8%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C.png" title="民主進步黨第17屆黨主席補選選舉結果" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"></div></div><span></span><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【預測變動表】</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><img alt="預測變動表" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FPolitical%2FDPP%2F2023%2F03-change.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="預測變動表" /></h2><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【Google trends 搜尋趨勢】</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><img alt="Google trends 搜尋趨勢" border="0" src="https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftsjh301.synology.me%2FPolitical%2FDPP%2F2023%2Fgoogle-trends-1.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" title="Google trends 搜尋趨勢" /></h2><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【作業時程】</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><img alt="2023 民主進步黨第17屆黨主席補選作業時程" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqVUuOPb6xEhJTsOYmR-Vfa9NZa7s568xDMLx1KtfIxcvU9wj_R7z0iTaqRer15pmNxT2KbqILJJhPH5_S1OtBz5irVOslw4HAtw7xFT9G_UET8g-YcBe1kVlafb4b-fGqjVKiSVzCIg-PhhT7yESKU1KlfWbGDLPYiYlcOHS2Ot_mNMsSiT56LMuagg/s16000/%E6%B0%91%E4%B8%BB%E9%80%B2%E6%AD%A5%E9%BB%A8%E7%AC%AC17%E5%B1%86%E9%BB%A8%E4%B8%BB%E5%B8%AD%E8%A3%9C%E9%81%B8%E4%BD%9C%E6%A5%AD%E6%99%82%E7%A8%8B.png" title="2023 民主進步黨第17屆黨主席補選作業時程" /></h2><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【歷任黨主席】</span></h2><h2 style="text-align: left;"><img alt="歷任黨主席" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjP_Z25hG9jBwf8cwaapHwVAxZgdm-dPMtTk_Elh45-yiJFaVYdqvIAb34BUs_m7jG0OKD1uqFjTsRtBxaUAplZbEt4_EF92yKCDJUlIMEfRQjEvBRdi9VJyhirf5D3j7atG4BzDyPxxQOgGhT32G3jwzx9UXDFKDmgR3yLrifrHeUjwo9XmD7HELxUeA/s16000/%E6%B0%91%E4%B8%BB%E9%80%B2%E6%AD%A5%E9%BB%A8%E5%89%B5%E9%BB%A8%E4%BB%A5%E4%BE%86%E4%B9%8B%E6%AD%B7%E4%BB%BB%E9%BB%A8%E4%B8%BB%E5%B8%AD%E5%90%8D%E5%96%AE.png" title="歷任黨主席" /></h2><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【上屆選舉結果】</span></h2><div><img alt="上屆選舉結果" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlu1F9JCo0fGRHwzFgfm3cTjMqMRxeyTzhyphenhyphenzNIwmrZAAumR6QleVo4iA3j67ws0VULR71SpaSRfKE7zxCGsJe3FrpY-4uSm0sdo0U58U0_xz7NNK2xf78rYJVL6Hq-Y6Kb1MtCmTFrxEH8/s16000/2019-01-06_185547.gif" title="上屆選舉結果" /></div><div>註:2019/1/6 進行黨員投票、開票</div><div><br /></div><div>---------------</div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【預測回顧】</span></h2><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b>1、<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2018/12/2019-dpp-chairman.html">2019 民進黨主席補選預測:狐狸與狗 成群結隊 枯木孤鳥 曲高和寡</a></b></span></div><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2018/12/2019-dpp-chairman.html"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWXZSYkZ_bRYPe-ZBrgfRNzLh5e3CV01YxDb3Bw5bNLhxpkNthi-IRyHGeEoJdkMVqxjC30WJYwGivcifvxFceb0ooVmG6h6YLV4CbwJKqLiKq1ov_W4QCyiqVjvk8LuKx1C2jEGFMRb_v/s1600/02-candidate.gif" /></a><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">2、<a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2014/01/2014-dpp-chairman.html">2014 民進黨新任黨主席預測:退一步海闊天空</a></span></b></div><a href="https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2014/01/2014-dpp-chairman.html"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrY5PJ4oTMFOrfDuB69TgEPVeQdRrxLDhb6oA3fVR4cQs8cwl_RSzvcI3iHfcvd54fRU1PPS8TtDBc9VIxxWoKznTKjcVWXQyqZokZrjHCd-TA8pE8Ax8nKzRumqdBuWTXphw_ewjlUWwG/s1600/DPP+Chairman-2014.gif" /></a><div><br /></div><div>--------------</div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">【後記】</span></h2><div><b><span style="color: #cc0000; font-size: large;">所謂派系:是很多人為少數人的利益而表現出來的瘋狂</span></b></div></div><div><span><span style="font-size: large;"><div style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>綠軍側翼:是善於尋找下一個女巫、代罪羔羊與終極霸凌對象,內心充滿罪惡感的進步團體</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large; font-weight: 400;"><b>所謂網軍:是一群厭倦太陽底下沒有鮮事,一起創造下個鮮事流量的無賴及</b></span><b>自戀狂</b></div></span></span></div>無情真實http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716391818485758860noreply@blogger.com3